{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79179144-87fa-4476-b03e-a4cf17d001d3", "symbol": "MGL", "name": "Magontec Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.862, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.195, "architecture_energy": 40.934, "architecture_maturity": 17.269, "architecture_confidence": 82.203, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.48, "rotation_up": 20.53, "upward_expansion": 9.84, "deceleration": 50.36, "rotation_down": 53.44, "downward_expansion": 74.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.204333, 0.205, 0.215048, 0.218634 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.21, "trend_reference": 0.221, "distance_from_trend": -0.049774, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.264562, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.206235, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.04714, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.02439, "excess_performance": -0.039315, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049774, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011186, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.206235, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013167, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090471, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127281, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02439, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.880787, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20000, "relative_activity": 0.568998, "balance": 6.880787, "dry_up": 0.55579, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069597, "annualized_volatility": 0.564031, "from_high_reference": -0.192308, "from_low_reference": 0.105263 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.221, "fair_value_reference": 0.264562, "structural_low": 0.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.37931, "median_excess_return": -0.004607, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.456141, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.025641, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.011505, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.666679, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02439, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.057437, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.592605, "worst_return": -0.349206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.196078, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119048, "active": false 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.541677, "energy": 36.635031, "activity_lines": [ 0.209, 0.221727, 0.225357, 0.225333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.2, "volume": 34974, "typical_volume": 37344.05, "trend": 0.225, "fair_value": 0.271309, "relative_strength": -8.641504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.656156, "energy": 68.575338, "activity_lines": [ 0.203333, 0.216909, 0.222738, 0.223699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.2, "volume": 2549, "typical_volume": 32158.95, "trend": 0.223833, "fair_value": 0.269365, "relative_strength": -8.618393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.074576, "energy": 72.067743, "activity_lines": [ 0.200667, 0.212364, 0.220143, 0.222086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.205, "volume": 7797, "typical_volume": 31994.7, "trend": 0.222833, "fair_value": 0.267609, "relative_strength": -6.094564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.762061, "energy": 69.223082, "activity_lines": [ 0.201, 0.209091, 0.218286, 0.220871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.2, "volume": 47797, "typical_volume": 34270.05, "trend": 0.221833, "fair_value": 0.266038, "relative_strength": -10.495864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.948233, "energy": 61.718449, "activity_lines": [ 0.201333, 0.205636, 0.216143, 0.219398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.21, "volume": 20000, "typical_volume": 35149.5, "trend": 0.221, "fair_value": 0.264562, "relative_strength": -9.04714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.195026, "energy": 40.933753, "activity_lines": [ 0.204333, 0.205, 0.215048, 0.218634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }