{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7918bd3e-9302-45dc-b19f-797451823665", "symbol": "00686R", "name": "Capital Taiex Daily Inversed -1X ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.23, "architecture_energy": 38.564, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.957, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.65, "rotation_up": 27.78, "upward_expansion": 22.99, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 38.45, "downward_expansion": 63.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.033333, 1.027091, 1.058381, 1.126194 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.02, "trend_reference": 1.224667, "distance_from_trend": -0.16712, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.205833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.53759, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.462973, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.30137, "excess_performance": -0.680682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16712, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150913, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.53759, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005331, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.51463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078784, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.30137, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.509247, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69986055, "relative_activity": 1.822425, "balance": 0.509247, "dry_up": 2.06945, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066365, "annualized_volatility": 0.284843, "from_high_reference": -0.504854, "from_low_reference": 0.051546 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.224667, "fair_value_reference": 2.205833, "structural_low": 0.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.017291, "positive_rate": 0.326087, "directional_follow_through": 0.652174, "median_excess_return": -0.029602, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 0.09417, "worst_return": -0.167832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.061642, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.113743, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.064972, "worst_return": -0.201342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.084821, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.094166, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.151603, "worst_return": -0.294521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.229348, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.480308, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.076294, "worst_return": -0.348214, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-08-12", "end": "2022-09-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076316, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-09-30", "end": "2022-11-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088372, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-11-25", "end": "2022-12-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012987, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-12-09", "end": "2022-12-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031088, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-01-06", "end": "2023-01-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-01-13", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.126984, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051515, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.258065, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008511, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"relative_strength": -50.554318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.731148, "energy": 60.777489, "activity_lines": [ 1.026667, 1.028545, 1.094571, 1.171613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.04, "volume": 75328368, "typical_volume": 33522449.35, "trend": 1.264333, "fair_value": 2.233397, "relative_strength": -52.322439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.034988, "energy": 52.474908, "activity_lines": [ 1.034, 1.028364, 1.081762, 1.155763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.03, "volume": 106385455, "typical_volume": 36392302.35, "trend": 1.244, "fair_value": 2.219487, "relative_strength": -50.990507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.141523, "energy": 41.713262, "activity_lines": [ 1.035333, 1.028, 1.069667, 1.140645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.02, "volume": 69986055, "typical_volume": 38402704.6, "trend": 1.224667, "fair_value": 2.205833, "relative_strength": -51.462973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.230059, "energy": 38.564007, "activity_lines": [ 1.033333, 1.027091, 1.058381, 1.126194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }