{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79237e28-2a37-4e87-a6a0-9c89c09d3bc2", "symbol": "300039", "name": "Shanghai Kaibao Pharmaceutical CO.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 68.504, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 5.101, "architecture_energy": 25.404, "architecture_maturity": 90.329, "architecture_confidence": 53.64, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.87, "rotation_up": 48.21, "upward_expansion": 28.06, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 12.05, "downward_expansion": 48.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.457333, 5.070545, 5.113177, 5.312532 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.96, "trend_reference": 5.587804, "distance_from_trend": 0.066609, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.925112, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.005888, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.627241, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.028305, "excess_performance": -0.035705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066609, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070157, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.005888, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062545, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016272, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.224333, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028305, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.669832, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 316815198, "relative_activity": 2.758425, "balance": 1.669832, "dry_up": 3.374966, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090909, "annualized_volatility": 0.371813, "from_high_reference": -0.130844, "from_low_reference": 0.457213 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.587804, "fair_value_reference": 5.925112, "structural_low": 4.09, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.019374, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.022102, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.272402, "worst_return": -0.214286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.006258, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.056858, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.64454, "worst_return": -0.119007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.122263, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.042585, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.331906, "worst_return": -0.10415, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 5.952867, "relative_strength": -31.959144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.042897, "energy": 87.49061, "activity_lines": [ 4.403333, 4.647445, 5.08454, 5.364042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.12, "volume": 451643426, "typical_volume": 75826869.4, "trend": 5.632803, "fair_value": 5.943929, "relative_strength": -14.05749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.118675, "energy": 56.526428, "activity_lines": [ 4.649333, 4.68613, 5.054443, 5.328778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.11, "volume": 394996027, "typical_volume": 89190099.9, "trend": 5.602608, "fair_value": 5.935289, "relative_strength": -13.850863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.077905, "energy": 31.021255, "activity_lines": [ 4.848, 4.734289, 5.029528, 5.295049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.5, "volume": 387054146, "typical_volume": 103389265.95, "trend": 5.586395, "fair_value": 5.929271, "relative_strength": -5.157864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.085351, "energy": 22.642109, "activity_lines": [ 5.12, 4.860727, 5.047612, 5.288429 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.96, "volume": 316815198, "typical_volume": 114853663.6, "trend": 5.587804, "fair_value": 5.925112, "relative_strength": -1.627241, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.10135, "energy": 25.403831, "activity_lines": [ 5.457333, 5.070545, 5.113177, 5.312532 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }