{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79259e11-df05-46a0-a626-bcebee5719a4", "symbol": "KSM-F9", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Limited - FTSE 100 PR 4Da ETF", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.827, "architecture_energy": 63.129, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.035, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.73, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.4, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.069333, 32.397818, 794.070857, 1389.984688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 32.89, "trend_reference": 2090.016667, "distance_from_trend": -0.984263, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3183.439103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.989668, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.854351, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.98996, "excess_performance": -1.018861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984263, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.339292, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.989668, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.848846, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988544, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.695575, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.98996, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.428328, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1861, "relative_activity": 0.448185, "balance": 0.428328, "dry_up": 0.346615, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.061885, "annualized_volatility": 6.376981, "from_high_reference": -0.990278, "from_low_reference": 0.16963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2090.016667, "fair_value_reference": 3183.439103, "structural_low": 28.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008032, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.003768, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.066754, "worst_return": -0.989255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.014282, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.139262, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.087598, "worst_return": -0.988243, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.009591, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.254927, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.049451, "worst_return": -0.068633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3226.284679, "relative_strength": -98.939571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.642813, "energy": 67.575319, "activity_lines": [ 32.329333, 187.054545, 1119.31, 1676.404731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.2, "volume": 2230, "typical_volume": 4418.15, "trend": 2199.787, "fair_value": 3205.221859, "relative_strength": -98.835261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.254198, "energy": 66.974181, "activity_lines": [ 33.034, 83.538, 949.255667, 1529.784495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.89, "volume": 1861, "typical_volume": 4152.3, "trend": 2090.016667, "fair_value": 3183.439103, "relative_strength": -98.854351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.826858, "energy": 63.128993, "activity_lines": [ 33.069333, 32.397818, 794.070857, 1389.984688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }