{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79266350-a250-43cf-99bd-b4a415ed2b05", "symbol": "CHG", "name": "Chemring Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.637, "architecture_energy": 70.665, "architecture_maturity": 18.587, "architecture_confidence": 79.67, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.57, "rotation_up": 77.9, "upward_expansion": 92.67, "deceleration": 39.28, "rotation_down": 9.58, "downward_expansion": 14.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 595.866667, 569.854545, 546.740477, 538.726251 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 627.0, "trend_reference": 530.3081, "distance_from_trend": 0.182332, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 426.423444, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.470369, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.084986, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.255377, "excess_performance": 0.204142, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.182332, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036381, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.470369, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.284095, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.09085, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.235514, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.255377, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.399822, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6418493, "relative_activity": 1.515205, "balance": 1.399822, "dry_up": 1.372861, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093996, "annualized_volatility": 0.486418, "from_high_reference": -0.026398, "from_low_reference": 0.404189 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 530.3081, "fair_value_reference": 426.423444, "structural_low": 446.520996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.001945, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.014612, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.389022, "worst_return": -0.148437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004388, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016761, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.27685, "worst_return": -0.161634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.10221, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.064058, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.296009, "worst_return": -0.144668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-31", "close": 590.5, "volume": 4121547, "typical_volume": 4200209.35, "trend": 527.43968, "fair_value": 424.300603, "relative_strength": 2.99811, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.033062, "energy": 60.699251, "activity_lines": [ 577.466667, 554.290909, 537.429524, 532.303004 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 627.0, "volume": 6418493, "typical_volume": 4236055.0, "trend": 530.3081, "fair_value": 426.423444, "relative_strength": 9.084986, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.637209, "energy": 70.665211, "activity_lines": [ 595.866667, 569.854545, 546.740477, 538.726251 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }