{ "ticker": { "uuid": "792babac-4226-40df-9786-6aa21aaa7c25", "symbol": "RTYS", "name": "Invesco Russell 2000 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.651, "architecture_energy": 52.402, "architecture_maturity": 62.165, "architecture_confidence": 52.404, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.14, "rotation_up": 44.23, "upward_expansion": 67.75, "deceleration": 68.07, "rotation_down": 27.58, "downward_expansion": 20.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 152.250668, 152.327182, 149.870166, 146.002322 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 155.270004, "trend_reference": 141.660165, "distance_from_trend": 0.096074, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 114.069781, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.361184, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.708955, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.147683, "excess_performance": 0.096448, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096074, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062758, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.361184, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028094, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.06709, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040427, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.147683, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.470295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36041, "relative_activity": 1.062736, "balance": 0.470295, "dry_up": 0.755866, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02319, "annualized_volatility": 0.150495, "from_high_reference": -0.005253, "from_low_reference": 0.379565 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 141.660165, "fair_value_reference": 114.069781, "structural_low": 122.599998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012679, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021371, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.081323, "worst_return": -0.08086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.024734, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.016899, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.203542, "worst_return": -0.183898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.089404, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.062738, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.227303, "worst_return": -0.232977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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153.091333, 151.322908, 146.442927, 142.885676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 151.634995, "volume": 17534, "typical_volume": 35582.1, "trend": 139.483999, "fair_value": 113.014685, "relative_strength": 7.971411, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.507263, "energy": 78.283803, "activity_lines": [ 152.663665, 151.692998, 147.414212, 143.718052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 151.404999, "volume": 17158, "typical_volume": 34970.55, "trend": 140.213999, "fair_value": 113.355101, "relative_strength": 6.196701, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.414972, "energy": 59.923469, "activity_lines": [ 152.177332, 151.91318, 148.281712, 144.487149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 149.380005, "volume": 31803, "typical_volume": 34893.1, "trend": 140.950832, "fair_value": 113.685678, "relative_strength": 3.250893, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.427578, "energy": 45.877682, "activity_lines": [ 151.076334, 151.610545, 148.850618, 145.078504 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 155.270004, "volume": 36041, "typical_volume": 33913.4, "trend": 141.660165, "fair_value": 114.069781, "relative_strength": 6.708955, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.651311, "energy": 52.401569, "activity_lines": [ 152.250668, 152.327182, 149.870166, 146.002322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }