{ "ticker": { "uuid": "792be3e8-c964-4902-83f1-d8b90802ac45", "symbol": "SB2", "name": "Salter Brothers Emerging Companies Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.073, "architecture_energy": 28.016, "architecture_maturity": 91.111, "architecture_confidence": 58.742, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.75, "rotation_up": 44.44, "upward_expansion": 23.91, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 16.84, "downward_expansion": 53.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.595, 0.579636, 0.581286, 0.600296 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.585, "trend_reference": 0.633383, "distance_from_trend": -0.076388, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.623658, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061985, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.934619, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.179013, "excess_performance": -0.242719, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076388, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071799, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061985, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037301, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129346, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109349, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.179013, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.933822, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2512, "relative_activity": 0.008025, "balance": 0.933822, "dry_up": 1.013396, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045365, "annualized_volatility": 0.249796, "from_high_reference": -0.245719, "from_low_reference": 0.114286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.633383, "fair_value_reference": 0.623658, "structural_low": 0.525, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.017046, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.149533, "worst_return": -0.079365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.002143, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017716, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.035397, "worst_return": -0.039683, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.072048, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072048, "worst_return": 0.072048, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.238134, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.168153, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.238134, "worst_return": 0.238134, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035398, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.273505, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013158, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040541, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054795, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.126666, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", 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"2026-08-07", "close": 0.585, "volume": 2512, "typical_volume": 313014.75, "trend": 0.633383, "fair_value": 0.623658, "relative_strength": -12.934619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.072944, "energy": 28.016094, "activity_lines": [ 0.595, 0.579636, 0.581286, 0.600296 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }