{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7931a8da-29c8-4dbe-a5df-c1d22aeb9af2", "symbol": "VYGR", "name": "Voyager Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.173, "architecture_energy": 65.781, "architecture_maturity": 25.472, "architecture_confidence": 89.872, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.71, "rotation_up": 11.06, "upward_expansion": 14.67, "deceleration": 37.53, "rotation_down": 67.87, "downward_expansion": 88.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.17, 3.315455, 3.495952, 3.604763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.27, "trend_reference": 3.709167, "distance_from_trend": -0.1184, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.635128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.419712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.691921, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.111413, "excess_performance": -0.298867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1184, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061564, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.419712, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067084, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.276919, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154947, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111413, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.61309, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2512045, "relative_activity": 0.871212, "balance": 0.61309, "dry_up": 1.09283, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127878, "annualized_volatility": 0.570376, "from_high_reference": -0.410811, "from_low_reference": 0.11414 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.709167, "fair_value_reference": 5.635128, "structural_low": 2.935, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.006042, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": 0.015445, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.386973, "worst_return": -0.301115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.063599, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.060438, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.901361, "worst_return": -0.308057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.023237, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.170454, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.346429, "worst_return": -0.379412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.182048, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.538235, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136729, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08134, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.191358, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119617, 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.890925, "energy": 43.435483, "activity_lines": [ 3.456667, 3.529909, 3.665667, 3.727462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.1, "volume": 3386330, "typical_volume": 3325134.6, "trend": 3.7675, "fair_value": 5.711346, "relative_strength": -27.98953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.89297, "energy": 59.006645, "activity_lines": [ 3.31, 3.439636, 3.601119, 3.68229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.03, "volume": 2559435, "typical_volume": 2971936.1, "trend": 3.734167, "fair_value": 5.674038, "relative_strength": -29.794302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.173035, "energy": 70.00383, "activity_lines": [ 3.181333, 3.348727, 3.533714, 3.63471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.27, "volume": 2512045, "typical_volume": 2883389.6, "trend": 3.709167, "fair_value": 5.635128, "relative_strength": -27.691921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.173429, "energy": 65.781094, "activity_lines": [ 3.17, 3.315455, 3.495952, 3.604763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }