{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7933d715-270e-42a2-b2d9-c0cfefb85d91", "symbol": "600519", "name": "Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.913, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.947, "architecture_energy": 28.84, "architecture_maturity": 83.301, "architecture_confidence": 65.999, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.44, "rotation_up": 45.19, "upward_expansion": 23.66, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 19.73, "downward_expansion": 55.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 1303.447323, 1265.504863, 1276.092092, 1308.996582 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1309.219971, "trend_reference": 1347.986405, "distance_from_trend": -0.028759, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1462.65446, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104901, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.601164, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.06551, "excess_performance": -0.022307, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028759, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03919, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104901, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005947, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046012, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096986, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06551, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.519291, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16672485, "relative_activity": 0.959472, "balance": 1.519291, "dry_up": 1.471448, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045404, "annualized_volatility": 0.238747, "from_high_reference": -0.165038, "from_low_reference": 0.120812 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1347.986405, "fair_value_reference": 1462.65446, "structural_low": 1168.099976, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.015234, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.017318, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.230698, "worst_return": -0.130814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.024274, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.01176, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.223022, "worst_return": -0.140775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029611, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.061067, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.139502, "worst_return": 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"direction": -15.523685, "energy": 23.788808, "activity_lines": [ 1287.069995, 1253.952002, 1276.739247, 1311.643793 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1309.219971, "volume": 16672485, "typical_volume": 17376733.25, "trend": 1347.986405, "fair_value": 1462.65446, "relative_strength": -4.601164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.947454, "energy": 28.840264, "activity_lines": [ 1303.447323, 1265.504863, 1276.092092, 1308.996582 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }