{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79375035-e498-4627-ac07-4234dae88bc5", "symbol": "HUMBLE", "name": "Humble Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.742, "architecture_energy": 92.648, "architecture_maturity": 27.548, "architecture_confidence": 81.114, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.65, "rotation_up": 8.16, "upward_expansion": 21.97, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 86.74, "downward_expansion": 99.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.813333, 6.217273, 6.688524, 6.890968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 5.59, "trend_reference": 7.160667, "distance_from_trend": -0.219346, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.194712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.392042, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.216587, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.271186, "excess_performance": -0.332681, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.219346, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048459, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.392042, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155087, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.342166, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149778, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271186, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.380364, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2064189, "relative_activity": 1.739807, "balance": 0.380364, "dry_up": 1.855882, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075822, "annualized_volatility": 0.264585, "from_high_reference": -0.389738, "from_low_reference": 0.02381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.160667, "fair_value_reference": 9.194712, "structural_low": 5.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.015198, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": -0.04067, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.419231, "worst_return": -0.338983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.044111, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.081039, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.193833, "worst_return": -0.372737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.172515, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.154974, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.126316, "worst_return": -0.360478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089992, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042169, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088261, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.191033, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.128386, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.967113, "energy": 83.483393, "activity_lines": [ 6.531333, 6.875818, 7.090857, 7.195505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.89, "volume": 1545826, "typical_volume": 1117553.85, "trend": 7.294333, "fair_value": 9.233654, "relative_strength": -29.590475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.665075, "energy": 90.806351, "activity_lines": [ 6.244667, 6.664182, 6.966619, 7.10129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.68, "volume": 1559551, "typical_volume": 1145559.5, "trend": 7.235667, "fair_value": 9.217212, "relative_strength": -32.488664, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.016197, "energy": 94.002385, "activity_lines": [ 6.000667, 6.434182, 6.828, 6.99714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.59, "volume": 2064189, "typical_volume": 1186446.85, "trend": 7.160667, "fair_value": 9.194712, "relative_strength": -34.216587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.741768, "energy": 92.648026, "activity_lines": [ 5.813333, 6.217273, 6.688524, 6.890968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }