{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7938652b-cec7-4c60-8461-75fc4bad103a", "symbol": "EYE", "name": "National Vision Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.735, "architecture_energy": 15.968, "architecture_maturity": 25.823, "architecture_confidence": 58.2, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.45, "rotation_up": 39.85, "upward_expansion": 28.56, "deceleration": 46.72, "rotation_down": 14.34, "downward_expansion": 45.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.445333, 20.415818, 19.999048, 21.195419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.55, "trend_reference": 22.976333, "distance_from_trend": -0.018555, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.698654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205969, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.717389, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.220263, "excess_performance": -0.407716, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018555, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099379, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205969, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004991, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197174, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043946, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.220263, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.633605, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8319295, "relative_activity": 0.844872, "balance": 0.633605, "dry_up": 0.910628, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121081, "annualized_volatility": 0.606349, "from_high_reference": -0.248834, "from_low_reference": 0.528814 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.976333, "fair_value_reference": 18.698654, "structural_low": 14.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.035398, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.042101, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.140276, "worst_return": -0.388224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.09159, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.066154, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.226042, "worst_return": -0.291857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.214062, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.20435, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.63719, "worst_return": -0.364061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.389387, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.399357, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.384298, "worst_return": -0.4499, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041417, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002463, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.17486, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.227303, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027273, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.942735, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097758, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.213427, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023212, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.141745, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 19.27, "volume": 5133424, "typical_volume": 6217012.9, "trend": 25.209667, "fair_value": 39.747949, "relative_strength": -46.315161, "stage": 4, "regime": 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19.015897, "relative_strength": -43.220798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.668127, "energy": 80.830283, "activity_lines": [ 19.681333, 21.794, 23.894476, 24.898903 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 16.75, "volume": 7671972, "typical_volume": 7939556.25, "trend": 25.511667, "fair_value": 18.956795, "relative_strength": -45.654068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.880952, "energy": 84.55052, "activity_lines": [ 18.272, 20.627818, 23.086667, 24.31428 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 15.44, "volume": 11034040, "typical_volume": 8163576.0, "trend": 25.222, "fair_value": 18.88859, "relative_strength": -47.104969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.269476, "energy": 89.747446, "activity_lines": [ 16.896667, 19.402, 22.199762, 23.664495 ] }, { "date": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -61.281312, "energy": 49.654447, "activity_lines": [ 17.658667, 18.041818, 20.596095, 22.325806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 19.76, "volume": 6545231, "typical_volume": 9295662.35, "trend": 24.075, "fair_value": 18.729551, "relative_strength": -30.939554, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.50033, "energy": 35.378198, "activity_lines": [ 18.482667, 18.155818, 20.312286, 22.026946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.55, "volume": 8343510, "typical_volume": 9484512.25, "trend": 23.765667, "fair_value": 18.703654, "relative_strength": -32.326924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.692232, "energy": 30.379323, "activity_lines": [ 19.036, 18.305273, 20.048762, 21.735011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.73, "volume": 11099900, "typical_volume": 9720072.85, "trend": 23.502333, "fair_value": 18.681603, "relative_strength": -24.579386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.420298, "energy": 23.598427, "activity_lines": [ 19.708667, 18.741818, 19.934762, 21.539161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.92, "volume": 8036286, "typical_volume": 9618495.35, "trend": 23.233, "fair_value": 18.676603, "relative_strength": -25.80103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.627694, "energy": 22.74717, "activity_lines": [ 19.97, 19.071636, 19.773333, 21.308043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.04, "volume": 8411657, "typical_volume": 9763075.9, "trend": 23.102667, "fair_value": 18.680513, "relative_strength": -17.876631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.098133, "energy": 18.030737, "activity_lines": [ 20.728667, 19.742, 19.85181, 21.231075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.55, "volume": 8319295, "typical_volume": 9846816.75, "trend": 22.976333, "fair_value": 18.698654, "relative_strength": -19.717389, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.735173, "energy": 15.967506, "activity_lines": [ 21.445333, 20.415818, 19.999048, 21.195419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }