{ "ticker": { "uuid": "793ae74d-e8f1-4f8e-843b-a70a82c1a1dc", "symbol": "NN", "name": "Nextnav Acquisition Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.397, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.471, "architecture_energy": 56.729, "architecture_maturity": 10.961, "architecture_confidence": 68.238, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.89, "rotation_up": 17.82, "upward_expansion": 20.19, "deceleration": 43.9, "rotation_down": 68.28, "downward_expansion": 61.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.228667, 15.225636, 17.140857, 17.421247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.31, "trend_reference": 17.388333, "distance_from_trend": -0.062015, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.517276, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.416134, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.620691, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086609, "excess_performance": -0.100845, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062015, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03502, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.416134, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.506189, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126207, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190708, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086609, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.779417, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19474669, "relative_activity": 1.53863, "balance": 0.779417, "dry_up": 1.102125, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.188201, "annualized_volatility": 0.898155, "from_high_reference": -0.332105, "from_low_reference": 0.50046 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.388333, "fair_value_reference": 11.517276, "structural_low": 12.035, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.096014, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.147295, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.201267, "worst_return": 0.064419, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.120708, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.07569, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.165761, "worst_return": 0.075655, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.50664, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.356935, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.561594, "worst_return": 0.451685, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.541667, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.297666, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.541667, "worst_return": 0.541667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.430328, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00251, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171671, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.169384, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.267452, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013183, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045802, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.227429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170717, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.229213, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", 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17.425667, "fair_value": 11.380032, "relative_strength": -30.056239, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.295114, "energy": 63.8328, "activity_lines": [ 14.147333, 16.215273, 17.791762, 17.764968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.11, "volume": 10079042, "typical_volume": 12221220.25, "trend": 17.322, "fair_value": 11.441571, "relative_strength": -26.267533, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.442298, "energy": 67.140487, "activity_lines": [ 13.518, 15.351091, 17.304619, 17.486538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.31, "volume": 19474669, "typical_volume": 12657150.95, "trend": 17.388333, "fair_value": 11.517276, "relative_strength": -12.620691, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.471377, "energy": 56.728554, "activity_lines": [ 14.228667, 15.225636, 17.140857, 17.421247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }