{ "ticker": { "uuid": "793b2aec-62ca-4794-9aa2-953e29ecd831", "symbol": "4909", "name": "New Era Electronics Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.176, "architecture_energy": 77.597, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.933, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.7, "rotation_up": 16.8, "upward_expansion": 18.62, "deceleration": 39.3, "rotation_down": 66.64, "downward_expansion": 91.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.053333, 39.948181, 44.638809, 48.131935 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 39.0, "trend_reference": 52.223333, "distance_from_trend": -0.253207, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 66.501778, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.41355, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.089478, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.271028, "excess_performance": -0.7124, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.253207, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032722, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.41355, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178811, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.470895, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053084, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271028, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.997888, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 990087, "relative_activity": 0.190107, "balance": 0.997888, "dry_up": 0.31778, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121598, "annualized_volatility": 0.524325, "from_high_reference": -0.47651, "from_low_reference": 0.178248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.223333, "fair_value_reference": 66.501778, "structural_low": 33.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.021094, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.009314, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.401156, "worst_return": -0.271296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.02957, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.011127, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.271805, "worst_return": -0.27551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.072941, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.096103, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.117284, "worst_return": -0.353571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 42.513332, 45.629999, 49.797381, 52.248495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.799999, "volume": 1624186, "typical_volume": 6743700.5, "trend": 54.281667, "fair_value": 66.116395, "relative_strength": -49.124592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.613965, "energy": 90.227767, "activity_lines": [ 40.376665, 43.816363, 48.320952, 51.165161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.349998, "volume": 2687334, "typical_volume": 6113020.5, "trend": 53.473333, "fair_value": 66.236997, "relative_strength": -49.531738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.958782, "energy": 90.159334, "activity_lines": [ 38.559998, 41.946363, 46.838333, 50.008279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.200001, "volume": 1318442, "typical_volume": 5528773.2, "trend": 52.81, "fair_value": 66.36975, "relative_strength": -47.307089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.093982, "energy": 84.729088, "activity_lines": [ 37.906666, 40.722726, 45.648809, 49.022903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 39.0, "volume": 990087, "typical_volume": 5208045.55, "trend": 52.223333, "fair_value": 66.501778, "relative_strength": -47.089478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.176065, "energy": 77.597247, "activity_lines": [ 38.053333, 39.948181, 44.638809, 48.131935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }