{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7942572b-15f9-4c8e-a4d1-d1b5ce2ae25d", "symbol": "FPXI", "name": "FIRST TRUST INTERNATIONAL EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.35, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.569, "architecture_energy": 21.441, "architecture_maturity": 59.115, "architecture_confidence": 84.074, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.08, "rotation_up": 15.04, "upward_expansion": 41.62, "deceleration": 87.6, "rotation_down": 45.81, "downward_expansion": 35.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.689313, 73.233685, 73.780811, 72.049861 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 72.54, "trend_reference": 69.773257, "distance_from_trend": 0.039653, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.616652, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.378651, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.486827, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.112894, "excess_performance": -0.07456, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039653, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078832, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.378651, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100154, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024868, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039959, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112894, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.414741, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73204, "relative_activity": 0.372619, "balance": 0.414741, "dry_up": 0.811033, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074554, "annualized_volatility": 0.322627, "from_high_reference": -0.159247, "from_low_reference": 0.303828 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.773257, "fair_value_reference": 52.616652, "structural_low": 59.245, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021919, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.030091, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.198146, "worst_return": -0.025012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038939, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.027207, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.350229, "worst_return": -0.014166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.084552, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.068142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.252216, "worst_return": 0.024221, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.49679, "energy": 18.802953, "activity_lines": [ 75.107229, 76.272478, 74.126538, 71.838069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.7203, "volume": 235987, "typical_volume": 187676.05, "trend": 69.154952, "fair_value": 52.225737, "relative_strength": -0.89288, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.521954, "energy": 20.834156, "activity_lines": [ 72.568153, 75.111958, 73.993102, 71.894015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.46, "volume": 161689, "typical_volume": 194388.05, "trend": 69.429423, "fair_value": 52.405278, "relative_strength": -3.249367, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.688015, "energy": 22.410031, "activity_lines": [ 70.540627, 73.745618, 73.708889, 71.849179 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.54, "volume": 73204, "typical_volume": 196457.9, "trend": 69.773257, "fair_value": 52.616652, "relative_strength": -2.486827, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.569489, "energy": 21.441105, "activity_lines": [ 70.689313, 73.233685, 73.780811, 72.049861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }