{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7943e77c-b331-4d02-980e-33f0daa9cd89", "symbol": "TIRT", "name": "PT Tirta Mahakam Resources Tbk", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 5.811, "architecture_energy": 53.215, "architecture_maturity": 19.534, "architecture_confidence": 53.62, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.6, "rotation_up": 14.59, "upward_expansion": 38.5, "deceleration": 49.0, "rotation_down": 37.75, "downward_expansion": 59.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 590.0, 590.0, 582.371429, 574.329032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 590.0, "trend_reference": 601.533333, "distance_from_trend": -0.019173, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 176.096154, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.350442, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 45.874926, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.180556, "excess_performance": -0.06006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019173, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082024, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.350442, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.64589, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.458749, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.133096, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.180556, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": null, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008475, "annualized_volatility": 0.752182, "from_high_reference": -0.41, "from_low_reference": 12.409091 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 601.533333, "fair_value_reference": 176.096154, "structural_low": 346.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.027085, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.56, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.055971, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 4.0, "worst_return": -0.52, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.472553, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.41588, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 13.318182, "worst_return": -0.52, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.23, 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"volume": 0, "typical_volume": 407140.0, "trend": 615.2, "fair_value": 172.634615, "relative_strength": 45.201267, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.861763, "energy": 29.732543, "activity_lines": [ 590.0, 590.0, 578.638095, 575.954839 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 590.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 315570.0, "trend": 601.533333, "fair_value": 176.096154, "relative_strength": 45.874926, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.811366, "energy": 53.215147, "activity_lines": [ 590.0, 590.0, 582.371429, 574.329032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }