{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79442798-2041-4fba-949f-269998153738", "symbol": "SMID", "name": "Smith-Midland Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.636, "architecture_energy": 36.973, "architecture_maturity": 48.368, "architecture_confidence": 95.319, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.72, "rotation_up": 17.07, "upward_expansion": 4.82, "deceleration": 46.89, "rotation_down": 54.23, "downward_expansion": 78.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.656667, 29.176636, 30.160643, 30.833172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 28.66, "trend_reference": 32.008167, "distance_from_trend": -0.104604, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.187658, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161686, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.512591, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.216083, "excess_performance": -0.403537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104604, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058869, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161686, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2013, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275126, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096515, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.216083, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.613699, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74208, "relative_activity": 1.217514, "balance": 0.613699, "dry_up": 1.314839, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120023, "annualized_volatility": 0.673884, "from_high_reference": -0.343549, "from_low_reference": 0.119732 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.008167, "fair_value_reference": 34.187658, "structural_low": 25.5954, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.033991, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.003641, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.366078, "worst_return": -0.17486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.055, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.043967, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.677127, "worst_return": -0.198883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.226662, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.151783, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.599133, "worst_return": 0.018333, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028132, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123298, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.205637, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080697, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095334, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", 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-54.273923, "energy": 39.422544, "activity_lines": [ 30.018, 30.344909, 31.12019, 31.854882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.6, "volume": 68011, "typical_volume": 53941.2, "trend": 32.740667, "fair_value": 34.103074, "relative_strength": -26.626451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.912115, "energy": 49.076562, "activity_lines": [ 29.466, 29.941455, 30.819619, 31.573419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.28, "volume": 107517, "typical_volume": 57810.65, "trend": 32.576667, "fair_value": 34.141022, "relative_strength": -20.48002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.282975, "energy": 33.760316, "activity_lines": [ 29.657333, 29.956182, 30.725762, 31.414667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.135, "volume": 70824, "typical_volume": 59893.65, "trend": 32.2315, "fair_value": 34.158876, "relative_strength": -28.517987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.760517, "energy": 42.522195, "activity_lines": [ 28.815667, 29.406727, 30.356762, 31.063591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.66, "volume": 74208, "typical_volume": 60950.45, "trend": 32.008167, "fair_value": 34.187658, "relative_strength": -27.512591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.635585, "energy": 36.973121, "activity_lines": [ 28.656667, 29.176636, 30.160643, 30.833172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }