{ "ticker": { "uuid": "794fa088-6b00-49ea-9cd2-b15530c3458a", "symbol": "UPGR", "name": "XTRACKERS US GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE SELECT EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.683, "architecture_energy": 45.327, "architecture_maturity": 4.215, "architecture_confidence": 74.233, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.68, "rotation_up": 14.49, "upward_expansion": 22.97, "deceleration": 52.21, "rotation_down": 65.25, "downward_expansion": 50.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.836207, 25.527161, 26.214393, 26.005065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.1795, "trend_reference": 25.896497, "distance_from_trend": -0.027687, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.674054, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.217928, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.711153, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05962, "excess_performance": -0.247074, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027687, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01795, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.217928, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12485, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117112, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107291, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05962, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.407646, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1543, "relative_activity": 0.354578, "balance": 1.407646, "dry_up": 0.349006, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062623, "annualized_volatility": 0.216702, "from_high_reference": -0.167199, "from_low_reference": 0.303481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.896497, "fair_value_reference": 20.674054, "structural_low": 22.698037, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.106541, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.023255, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.120398, "worst_return": 0.092684, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.160671, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.095186, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.160671, "worst_return": 0.160671, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009309, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004258, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032805, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.143045, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030341, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051926, "active": false }, { 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"Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.650831, "energy": 31.806739, "activity_lines": [ 25.411653, 26.243406, 26.45687, 26.161295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.2537, "volume": 195, "typical_volume": 4665.05, "trend": 25.915681, "fair_value": 20.659535, "relative_strength": -10.56971, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.394604, "energy": 43.389701, "activity_lines": [ 24.883753, 25.76434, 26.292556, 26.05256 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.1795, "volume": 1543, "typical_volume": 4351.65, "trend": 25.896497, "fair_value": 20.674054, "relative_strength": -11.711153, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.683263, "energy": 45.326973, "activity_lines": [ 24.836207, 25.527161, 26.214393, 26.005065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }