{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79517370-9b8c-4d46-a526-9337d7c70d50", "symbol": "ARM", "name": "Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.652, "architecture_energy": 22.382, "architecture_maturity": 81.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.203, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.48, "rotation_up": 17.45, "upward_expansion": 51.57, "deceleration": 93.92, "rotation_down": 38.83, "downward_expansion": 19.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 267.294, 294.728545, 292.956762, 261.181161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 282.57, "trend_reference": 217.147333, "distance_from_trend": 0.301282, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 141.852862, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.991994, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 37.720123, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.284317, "excess_performance": 1.096863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.301282, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.412763, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.991994, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.298705, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.377201, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131326, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.284317, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.048636, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28586995, "relative_activity": 0.604154, "balance": 1.048636, "dry_up": 0.66604, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.251706, "annualized_volatility": 1.002493, "from_high_reference": -0.375812, "from_low_reference": 1.825135 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 217.147333, "fair_value_reference": 141.852862, "structural_low": 111.2601, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005993, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014174, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.084443, "worst_return": -0.188097, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.092191, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.100143, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.006191, "worst_return": -0.190574, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.098121, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.143236, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.098121, "worst_return": -0.098121, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.138406, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006687, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114463, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18145, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073739, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.160659, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034552, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.417982, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.252825, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086766, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 60.75, "volume": 205287596, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 51.32, "volume": 92691105, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 53.52, "volume": 42622605, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, 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"direction": 32.663033, "energy": 26.56611, "activity_lines": [ 286.920667, 319.398727, 291.889429, 254.50271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 239.69, "volume": 40353380, "typical_volume": 47410749.05, "trend": 211.454667, "fair_value": 140.92096, "relative_strength": 24.022091, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.624984, "energy": 22.524701, "activity_lines": [ 266.808, 302.558, 290.676286, 256.593075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 282.57, "volume": 28586995, "typical_volume": 47317430.75, "trend": 217.147333, "fair_value": 141.852862, "relative_strength": 37.720123, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.651571, "energy": 22.382382, "activity_lines": [ 267.294, 294.728545, 292.956762, 261.181161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }