{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79543869-3c48-4a32-8865-eeb63a0a1288", "symbol": "RGC", "name": "Regencell Bioscience Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.883, "architecture_energy": 70.443, "architecture_maturity": 39.912, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.36, "rotation_up": 24.8, "upward_expansion": 13.91, "deceleration": 46.08, "rotation_down": 60.46, "downward_expansion": 87.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.656667, 6.860909, 13.341095, 17.11886 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.41, "trend_reference": 21.388333, "distance_from_trend": -0.747058, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.200516, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.340285, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -75.945329, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.801322, "excess_performance": -0.988776, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.747058, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132354, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.340285, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -3.4315, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.759453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.943125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.801322, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.140272, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1188296, "relative_activity": 1.025268, "balance": 0.140272, "dry_up": 1.108229, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.702373, "annualized_volatility": 1.207681, "from_high_reference": -0.921594, "from_low_reference": 0.199557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.388333, "fair_value_reference": 8.200516, "structural_low": 4.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.047532, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.079784, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 4.580415, "worst_return": -0.394021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.015028, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.158211, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 5.23016, "worst_return": -0.566682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.48667, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.46166, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 167.978266, "worst_return": -0.697784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-73.637216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.236095, "energy": 88.005389, "activity_lines": [ 5.702667, 9.124182, 16.051619, 19.335462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.18, "volume": 908141, "typical_volume": 1145944.6, "trend": 22.734333, "fair_value": 8.168367, "relative_strength": -71.421137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.603893, "energy": 82.939228, "activity_lines": [ 5.798, 7.884182, 14.692429, 18.236559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.41, "volume": 1188296, "typical_volume": 1159009.75, "trend": 21.388333, "fair_value": 8.200516, "relative_strength": -75.945329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.882574, "energy": 70.442988, "activity_lines": [ 5.656667, 6.860909, 13.341095, 17.11886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }