{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7954d4c3-3f83-4fbb-8863-ff1b9bae52d2", "symbol": "GGAL", "name": "Grupo Financiero Galicia SA ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.522, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.376, "architecture_energy": 16.626, "architecture_maturity": 42.803, "architecture_confidence": 76.873, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.0, "rotation_up": 21.54, "upward_expansion": 53.72, "deceleration": 90.09, "rotation_down": 33.06, "downward_expansion": 19.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.733662, 50.060884, 48.869126, 47.697908 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 46.18, "trend_reference": 47.064325, "distance_from_trend": -0.01879, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.112214, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180705, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.443646, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.040516, "excess_performance": -0.22797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01879, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001079, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180705, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03436, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104436, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145115, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040516, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.506421, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3339002, "relative_activity": 0.62095, "balance": 1.506421, "dry_up": 0.800688, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117154, "annualized_volatility": 0.522584, "from_high_reference": -0.236207, "from_low_reference": 0.857638 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.064325, "fair_value_reference": 39.112214, "structural_low": 38.687468, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.010544, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.054916, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.500547, "worst_return": -0.226093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.054762, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.084269, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.677717, "worst_return": -0.090021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.328974, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.214172, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.573736, "worst_return": -0.172839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.306049, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090971, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123216, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102589, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.124539, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", 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41.755253, "energy": 63.462036, "activity_lines": [ 52.723333, 48.695565, 46.364557, 46.620268 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 49.97, "volume": 4916385, "typical_volume": 5988563.95, "trend": 47.386256, "fair_value": 37.75031, "relative_strength": -2.991396, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.323679, "energy": 59.610951, "activity_lines": [ 52.474667, 49.334023, 46.803986, 46.783004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 50.321191, "volume": 3506058, "typical_volume": 5752318.45, "trend": 47.445133, "fair_value": 37.982545, "relative_strength": -2.702916, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.507076, "energy": 54.707703, "activity_lines": [ 51.915064, 49.982946, 47.2681, 46.972354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 53.677935, "volume": 5849791, "typical_volume": 5815624.5, "trend": 47.66956, "fair_value": 38.237047, "relative_strength": 2.139516, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.685667, "energy": 39.939265, "activity_lines": [ 52.498963, 51.097968, 48.025732, 47.37447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.891608, "volume": 5880240, "typical_volume": 5811212.3, "trend": 47.581586, "fair_value": 38.458638, "relative_strength": -0.713589, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.292565, "energy": 21.20032, "activity_lines": [ 51.429557, 51.2654, 48.397597, 47.517828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.252228, "volume": 4661830, "typical_volume": 5656517.8, "trend": 47.426398, "fair_value": 38.681466, "relative_strength": 0.01655, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.623419, "energy": 23.605937, "activity_lines": [ 50.498251, 51.16161, 48.679197, 47.625612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.721773, "volume": 3340910, "typical_volume": 5535999.45, "trend": 47.354787, "fair_value": 38.909359, "relative_strength": 0.754939, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.672734, "energy": 20.945153, "activity_lines": [ 50.197977, 50.989333, 48.965425, 47.7737 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.18, "volume": 3339002, "typical_volume": 5377244.55, "trend": 47.064325, "fair_value": 39.112214, "relative_strength": -10.443646, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.376487, "energy": 16.626418, "activity_lines": [ 48.733662, 50.060884, 48.869126, 47.697908 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }