{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7954faf2-d42b-4c73-bf39-bab01a18d8e1", "symbol": "XUT3", "name": "Xtrackers US Treasuries 1-3 UCI", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.287, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.197, "architecture_energy": 63.475, "architecture_maturity": 57.161, "architecture_confidence": 68.756, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.82, "rotation_up": 58.68, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.51, "rotation_down": 26.79, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 147.121333, 147.040182, 145.980049, 145.310517 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 146.009995, "trend_reference": 144.402716, "distance_from_trend": 0.011131, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 145.096478, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006296, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.97329, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.02916, "excess_performance": -0.141732, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011131, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007989, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006296, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020724, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129733, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009615, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02916, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.595691, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9, "relative_activity": 0.021637, "balance": 0.595691, "dry_up": 0.01142, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0054, "annualized_volatility": 0.046607, "from_high_reference": -0.012378, "from_low_reference": 0.046735 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 144.402716, "fair_value_reference": 145.096478, "structural_low": 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null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 142.839996, "volume": 41, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 143.110001, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 144.419998, "volume": 351, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 143.960007, "volume": 778, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 145.270004, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 145.130005, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 485.35, "trend": 143.315731, "fair_value": 144.896501, "relative_strength": -12.685996, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.418543, "energy": 71.123469, "activity_lines": [ 144.704004, 144.126548, 143.884189, 143.58822 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 146.330002, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 434.3, "trend": 143.392017, "fair_value": 144.914198, "relative_strength": -13.765369, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.747699, "energy": 81.805173, "activity_lines": [ 145.35467, 144.599457, 144.157242, 143.782689 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 146.330002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 433.65, "trend": 143.486044, "fair_value": 144.931464, "relative_strength": -10.752162, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.006225, "energy": 86.616499, "activity_lines": [ 145.79067, 145.012002, 144.404424, 143.972236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 147.660004, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 423.2, "trend": 143.646746, "fair_value": 144.964338, "relative_strength": -12.209628, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.001537, "energy": 95.530282, "activity_lines": [ 146.54267, 145.596185, 144.757049, 144.241524 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 147.449997, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 423.1, "trend": 143.797492, "fair_value": 144.993929, "relative_strength": -11.632778, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.136564, "energy": 93.688048, "activity_lines": [ 146.978001, 146.066911, 145.060239, 144.486895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 147.470001, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 415.2, "trend": 143.966973, "fair_value": 145.02306, "relative_strength": -10.027946, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.064632, "energy": 91.22275, "activity_lines": [ 147.274667, 146.470547, 145.342096, 144.723831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 147.699997, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 415.5, "trend": 144.144121, "fair_value": 145.054187, "relative_strength": -9.432085, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.003072, "energy": 91.617532, "activity_lines": [ 147.491999, 146.831819, 145.621668, 144.964672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 147.820007, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 415.6, "trend": 144.325269, "fair_value": 145.085978, "relative_strength": -9.639304, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.302359, "energy": 90.404783, "activity_lines": [ 147.658002, 147.131456, 145.894287, 145.201826 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 146.009995, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 415.95, "trend": 144.402716, "fair_value": 145.096478, "relative_strength": -12.97329, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.197001, "energy": 63.47471, "activity_lines": [ 147.121333, 147.040182, 145.980049, 145.310517 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }