{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7959cc90-ae75-48f7-aad6-d3d8461e5dc4", "symbol": "000959", "name": "Beijing Shougang Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.947, "architecture_energy": 28.503, "architecture_maturity": 87.503, "architecture_confidence": 72.46, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.92, "rotation_up": 33.42, "upward_expansion": 21.29, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 19.72, "downward_expansion": 55.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.753333, 3.604474, 3.704946, 3.997572 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.72, "trend_reference": 4.409075, "distance_from_trend": -0.156286, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.664045, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015271, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.142341, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.342756, "excess_performance": -0.350156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156286, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069554, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.015271, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223961, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181423, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021886, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.342756, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.64158, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 149554877, "relative_activity": 0.91395, "balance": 0.64158, "dry_up": 1.441892, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091628, "annualized_volatility": 0.395695, "from_high_reference": -0.364103, "from_low_reference": 0.21051 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.409075, "fair_value_reference": 3.664045, "structural_low": 3.073086, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.003533, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.009917, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.269531, "worst_return": -0.263513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.034794, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.02567, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.205556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.07342, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.070012, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.036364, "worst_return": -0.238011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146479, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121495, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044077, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.197015, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0275, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17381, "active": false }, { 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-15.151355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.999328, "energy": 35.207183, "activity_lines": [ 3.603223, 3.48401, 3.746253, 4.082829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.89, "volume": 220895327, "typical_volume": 167059260.55, "trend": 4.448409, "fair_value": 3.663066, "relative_strength": -10.414973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.260491, "energy": 29.32655, "activity_lines": [ 3.733183, 3.561787, 3.730242, 4.044567 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.72, "volume": 149554877, "typical_volume": 163635768.4, "trend": 4.409075, "fair_value": 3.664045, "relative_strength": -18.142341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.94654, "energy": 28.50268, "activity_lines": [ 3.753333, 3.604474, 3.704946, 3.997572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }