{ "ticker": { "uuid": "796a03be-c512-4fc9-b216-7ce1df9e7244", "symbol": "IVAL", "name": "ALPHA ARCHITECT INTERNATIONAL QUANTITATIVE VALUE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.224, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.257, "architecture_energy": 76.838, "architecture_maturity": 36.986, "architecture_confidence": 65.761, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.84, "rotation_up": 81.04, "upward_expansion": 93.67, "deceleration": 39.15, "rotation_down": 9.64, "downward_expansion": 15.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.94196, 35.434203, 35.130661, 34.927108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 36.825, "trend_reference": 34.664735, "distance_from_trend": 0.062319, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.96064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.36588, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.640411, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.046938, "excess_performance": -0.140516, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062319, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043968, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.36588, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013845, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016404, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039264, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046938, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.18276, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 131525, "relative_activity": 1.63455, "balance": 1.18276, "dry_up": 0.878202, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024815, "annualized_volatility": 0.176635, "from_high_reference": -0.00473, "from_low_reference": 0.291827 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.664735, "fair_value_reference": 26.96064, "structural_low": 32.405897, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.017619, "positive_rate": 0.677419, "directional_follow_through": 0.677419, "median_excess_return": -0.021074, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.092735, "worst_return": -0.097939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.048174, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.01134, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.102946, "worst_return": -0.088078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.062307, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.069067, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.2047, "worst_return": 0.030599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.777951, "energy": 21.01639, "activity_lines": [ 34.823587, 34.805172, 34.708076, 34.605231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.08, "volume": 27200, "typical_volume": 76158.65, "trend": 34.354817, "fair_value": 26.775318, "relative_strength": -0.835744, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.609372, "energy": 31.002382, "activity_lines": [ 34.936397, 34.854368, 34.766976, 34.659889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.18, "volume": 80843, "typical_volume": 76399.25, "trend": 34.508291, "fair_value": 26.865882, "relative_strength": 1.595831, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.06741, "energy": 59.99035, "activity_lines": [ 35.398773, 35.09944, 34.924975, 34.777643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.825, "volume": 131525, "typical_volume": 80465.55, "trend": 34.664735, "fair_value": 26.96064, "relative_strength": -1.640411, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.25705, "energy": 76.83772, "activity_lines": [ 35.94196, 35.434203, 35.130661, 34.927108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }