{ "ticker": { "uuid": "796d8d5e-01c1-4280-a2a1-f327ded2b227", "symbol": "CSED3", "name": "Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.019, "architecture_energy": 23.857, "architecture_maturity": 92.032, "architecture_confidence": 77.2, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.24, "rotation_up": 28.14, "upward_expansion": 21.33, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 23.69, "downward_expansion": 57.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.234667, 4.072545, 4.21609, 4.576154 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.4, "trend_reference": 5.103826, "distance_from_trend": -0.137902, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.009099, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097504, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.6651, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.299677, "excess_performance": -0.242629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137902, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100235, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.097504, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331505, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166651, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08507, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.299677, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.38333, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1862900, "relative_activity": 0.882337, "balance": 0.38333, "dry_up": 0.592104, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098601, "annualized_volatility": 0.586693, "from_high_reference": -0.374404, "from_low_reference": 0.264368 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.103826, "fair_value_reference": 4.009099, "structural_low": 3.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.009006, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.376423, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.029081, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.008978, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.807843, "worst_return": -0.199906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.446445, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.344887, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.693025, "worst_return": -0.104195, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048913, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.318071, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.143443, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00053, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.527737, "energy": 60.273091, "activity_lines": [ 3.896, 3.905273, 4.425413, 4.853477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.92, "volume": 1225100, "typical_volume": 2193270.0, "trend": 5.275677, "fair_value": 3.997181, "relative_strength": -27.620172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.73891, "energy": 49.677302, "activity_lines": [ 3.936, 3.878, 4.334246, 4.763168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.85, "volume": 819200, "typical_volume": 2119410.0, "trend": 5.209016, "fair_value": 3.999325, "relative_strength": -28.545703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.568932, "energy": 46.59386, "activity_lines": [ 3.929333, 3.869091, 4.248167, 4.671189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.5, "volume": 1093300, "typical_volume": 2094100.0, "trend": 5.164021, "fair_value": 4.004507, "relative_strength": -17.838728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.348272, "energy": 31.200417, "activity_lines": [ 4.123333, 3.982545, 4.233883, 4.625446 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.4, "volume": 1862900, "typical_volume": 2111325.0, "trend": 5.103826, "fair_value": 4.009099, "relative_strength": -16.6651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.019475, "energy": 23.856927, "activity_lines": [ 4.234667, 4.072545, 4.21609, 4.576154 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }