{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7970c9a8-8b4d-4bef-bf91-401b1014915e", "symbol": "NELCAST", "name": "Nelcast Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.246, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.923, "architecture_energy": 21.977, "architecture_maturity": 39.217, "architecture_confidence": 86.001, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.89, "rotation_up": 20.55, "upward_expansion": 48.55, "deceleration": 67.19, "rotation_down": 42.6, "downward_expansion": 37.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 127.435833, 131.259462, 134.735953, 132.486409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 125.610001, "trend_reference": 126.650633, "distance_from_trend": -0.008217, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 132.652889, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.053093, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.544733, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030435, "excess_performance": 0.074144, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008217, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075142, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.053093, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.289599, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005447, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288224, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030435, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.143385, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 474192, "relative_activity": 0.404449, "balance": 1.143385, "dry_up": 2.515237, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0953, "annualized_volatility": 0.458791, "from_high_reference": -0.283988, "from_low_reference": 0.460921 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 126.650633, "fair_value_reference": 132.652889, "structural_low": 103.440002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.051568, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": -0.052549, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.196192, "worst_return": -0.227919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.094811, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.109256, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.172013, "worst_return": -0.255865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017445, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014705, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193505, "worst_return": -0.165771, "sufficient": false 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139.188235, 136.549657, 130.711964 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 139.137482, "volume": 1049997, "typical_volume": 908005.6, "trend": 123.3723, "fair_value": 132.269377, "relative_strength": 10.862352, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.260937, "energy": 19.178951, "activity_lines": [ 138.097426, 138.81975, 137.243648, 131.792938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 127.729996, "volume": 737299, "typical_volume": 905997.4, "trend": 124.192633, "fair_value": 132.40366, "relative_strength": 1.489088, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.966993, "energy": 9.294244, "activity_lines": [ 134.756161, 136.427223, 136.751129, 132.074079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 134.470001, "volume": 6936436, "typical_volume": 1067573.9, "trend": 125.1713, "fair_value": 132.591976, "relative_strength": 9.680804, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.788504, "energy": 9.740133, "activity_lines": [ 134.435563, 135.850878, 136.837562, 132.737135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 121.370003, "volume": 3647931, "typical_volume": 1191823.5, "trend": 125.694966, "fair_value": 132.601673, "relative_strength": -2.816932, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.127186, "energy": 12.130987, "activity_lines": [ 129.879784, 133.033261, 135.58171, 132.49189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 125.610001, "volume": 474192, "typical_volume": 1172440.2, "trend": 126.650633, "fair_value": 132.652889, "relative_strength": 0.544733, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.923256, "energy": 21.976867, "activity_lines": [ 127.435833, 131.259462, 134.735953, 132.486409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }