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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.181, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.142, "architecture_energy": 21.184, "architecture_maturity": 29.138, "architecture_confidence": 55.62, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.13, "rotation_up": 40.09, "upward_expansion": 65.66, "deceleration": 58.21, "rotation_down": 27.81, "downward_expansion": 17.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.777333, 109.551636, 107.516296, 106.15283 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 104.5, "trend_reference": 105.43921, "distance_from_trend": -0.008908, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 111.187825, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.060149, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.968369, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.081275, "excess_performance": -0.2069, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008908, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045548, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.060149, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076598, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049684, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015188, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.081275, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.36075, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28595526, "relative_activity": 1.08048, "balance": 1.36075, "dry_up": 1.06434, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062781, "annualized_volatility": 0.307486, "from_high_reference": -0.119327, "from_low_reference": 0.337563 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 105.43921, "fair_value_reference": 111.187825, 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"activity_lines": [ 109.815333, 107.899994, 105.087033, 104.74279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 117.72, "volume": 22215292, "typical_volume": 28354739.35, "trend": 104.65998, "fair_value": 112.087638, "relative_strength": 11.660962, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.93258, "energy": 72.110016, "activity_lines": [ 112.773333, 110.088733, 106.457583, 105.626066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.79, "volume": 23274515, "typical_volume": 27400739.15, "trend": 105.237666, "fair_value": 111.802197, "relative_strength": 9.49934, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.375127, "energy": 69.210178, "activity_lines": [ 114.113333, 111.405818, 107.531386, 106.279616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 104.22, "volume": 38588154, "typical_volume": 27756682.8, "trend": 105.44751, "fair_value": 111.486776, "relative_strength": -1.808173, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.364351, "energy": 41.117755, "activity_lines": [ 111.268, 110.482364, 107.531104, 106.21396 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 104.5, "volume": 28595526, "typical_volume": 26465576.35, "trend": 105.43921, "fair_value": 111.187825, "relative_strength": -4.968369, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.141593, "energy": 21.183807, "activity_lines": [ 108.777333, 109.551636, 107.516296, 106.15283 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }