{ "ticker": { "uuid": "797730dd-c691-4d70-9f38-e7ff16a30075", "symbol": "M2PT34", "name": "Medical Properties Trust, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.012, "architecture_energy": 31.655, "architecture_maturity": 32.242, "architecture_confidence": 88.271, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.19, "rotation_up": 26.54, "upward_expansion": 8.83, "deceleration": 30.35, "rotation_down": 41.45, "downward_expansion": 73.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.930667, 11.931266, 12.127737, 12.356545 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.86, "trend_reference": 12.742467, "distance_from_trend": -0.069254, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.306901, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.036313, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.422351, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.144012, "excess_performance": -0.086964, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069254, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047963, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.036313, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012395, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124224, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051586, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144012, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.876626, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 156, "relative_activity": 0.135629, "balance": 2.876626, "dry_up": 0.31864, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04528, "annualized_volatility": 0.319375, "from_high_reference": -0.287101, "from_low_reference": 0.149403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.742467, "fair_value_reference": 12.306901, "structural_low": 11.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.014354, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": 0.003703, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.263712, "worst_return": -0.364842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.149767, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.079632, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.327487, "worst_return": -0.365698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.187948, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.21901, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.24347, "worst_return": -0.344744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005315, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095984, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093089, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071212, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107266, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.31, "volume": 112, "typical_volume": 1232.35, "trend": 12.888736, "fair_value": 12.394257, "relative_strength": -10.482208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.596363, "energy": 32.534067, "activity_lines": [ 12.023333, 12.061104, 12.218996, 12.494774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.71, "volume": 265, "typical_volume": 1225.6, "trend": 12.823823, "fair_value": 12.336937, "relative_strength": -16.417548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.313432, "energy": 43.792631, "activity_lines": [ 11.954, 11.97326, 12.163414, 12.418727 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.86, "volume": 156, "typical_volume": 1150.2, "trend": 12.742467, "fair_value": 12.306901, "relative_strength": -12.422351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.011858, "energy": 31.654735, "activity_lines": [ 11.930667, 11.931266, 12.127737, 12.356545 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }