{ "ticker": { "uuid": "797d9235-5f77-40c0-a869-b4ee11d3cd50", "symbol": "TSMC34", "name": "Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.662, "architecture_energy": 23.457, "architecture_maturity": 65.724, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.09, "rotation_up": 21.14, "upward_expansion": 54.33, "deceleration": 91.11, "rotation_down": 37.94, "downward_expansion": 20.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 261.821337, 269.001822, 265.899079, 257.701855 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 268.290009, "trend_reference": 247.489903, "distance_from_trend": 0.084044, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 146.139363, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.83585, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 17.083162, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.186957, "excess_performance": 0.244006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084044, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110072, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.83585, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120802, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.170832, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048504, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.186957, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.650524, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 998017, "relative_activity": 2.65774, "balance": 2.650524, "dry_up": 2.131508, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07675, "annualized_volatility": 0.334754, "from_high_reference": -0.115197, "from_low_reference": 0.769858 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 247.489903, "fair_value_reference": 146.139363, "structural_low": 206.309998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.069734, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.100882, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.164114, "worst_return": -0.087975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.235657, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.109898, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.303494, "worst_return": 0.07946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.307083, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.190748, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.525668, "worst_return": -0.071742, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.302727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.171499, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024919, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100127, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054623, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": 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256.75, "volume": 626194, "typical_volume": 317037.5, "trend": 244.48251, "fair_value": 143.483548, "relative_strength": 12.013209, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.399251, "energy": 20.764687, "activity_lines": [ 266.426666, 272.598935, 264.24964, 255.428164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 257.2, "volume": 707587, "typical_volume": 335986.4, "trend": 245.765281, "fair_value": 144.76967, "relative_strength": 9.354411, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.652392, "energy": 23.989629, "activity_lines": [ 261.534667, 269.80574, 264.623468, 256.248647 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 268.290009, "volume": 998017, "typical_volume": 375513.4, "trend": 247.489903, "fair_value": 146.139363, "relative_strength": 17.083162, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.661685, "energy": 23.457033, "activity_lines": [ 261.821337, 269.001822, 265.899079, 257.701855 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }