{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7981af04-6f80-40e0-b579-db2b676d9704", "symbol": "XCUR", "name": "Exicure Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.577, "architecture_energy": 63.529, "architecture_maturity": 57.277, "architecture_confidence": 87.662, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.42, "rotation_up": 19.5, "upward_expansion": 10.17, "deceleration": 51.57, "rotation_down": 70.74, "downward_expansion": 88.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.567667, 1.795455, 2.299371, 2.72849 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.345, "trend_reference": 3.340833, "distance_from_trend": -0.597406, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.409618, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.751369, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -71.27318, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.666253, "excess_performance": -0.853707, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.597406, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231227, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.751369, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.346755, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.712732, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210841, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.666253, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.051959, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 247801, "relative_activity": 0.192861, "balance": 0.051959, "dry_up": 4.61856, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.462785, "annualized_volatility": 0.646522, "from_high_reference": -0.858121, "from_low_reference": 0.05989 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.340833, "fair_value_reference": 5.409618, "structural_low": 1.269, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.101911, "positive_rate": 0.367347, "directional_follow_through": 0.632653, "median_excess_return": -0.097854, "regime_survival": 0.877551, "best_return": 0.524562, "worst_return": -0.561416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.179487, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.181035, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.582642, "worst_return": -0.844141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.316076, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.496509, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.261477, "worst_return": -0.872115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.109231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.191943, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.36753, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057432, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.303082, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.642374, "energy": 78.700665, "activity_lines": [ 2.066, 2.392364, 2.878133, 3.270361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.68, "volume": 22480456, "typical_volume": 1240995.3, "trend": 3.764333, "fair_value": 5.471522, "relative_strength": -65.986721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.284527, "energy": 76.234494, "activity_lines": [ 1.882667, 2.22, 2.725276, 3.12677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.76, "volume": 834455, "typical_volume": 1279145.05, "trend": 3.623333, "fair_value": 5.448509, "relative_strength": -62.641727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.119116, "energy": 73.901604, "activity_lines": [ 1.799333, 2.092909, 2.589848, 2.997458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.6, "volume": 174231, "typical_volume": 1283846.95, "trend": 3.490667, "fair_value": 5.428317, "relative_strength": -65.23786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.179241, "energy": 67.963048, "activity_lines": [ 1.699333, 1.956364, 2.450562, 2.86692 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.345, "volume": 247801, "typical_volume": 1284867.05, "trend": 3.340833, "fair_value": 5.409618, "relative_strength": -71.27318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.576891, "energy": 63.529358, "activity_lines": [ 1.567667, 1.795455, 2.299371, 2.72849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }