{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7986d57c-e4a3-4edc-9b21-1231f974a7bc", "symbol": "603225", "name": "Xinfengming Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.581, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 4.885, "architecture_energy": 4.931, "architecture_maturity": 18.012, "architecture_confidence": 43.659, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.69, "rotation_up": 27.43, "upward_expansion": 22.23, "deceleration": 61.56, "rotation_down": 38.24, "downward_expansion": 33.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.802667, 19.026627, 18.671396, 18.550883 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.48, "trend_reference": 18.783825, "distance_from_trend": 0.037062, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.992536, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.392171, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.992255, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.066603, "excess_performance": -0.023399, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037062, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036179, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.392171, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040242, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.109923, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056276, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066603, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.401553, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82108153, "relative_activity": 0.897703, "balance": 0.401553, "dry_up": 0.957446, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125177, "annualized_volatility": 0.511448, "from_high_reference": -0.144488, "from_low_reference": 0.616598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.783825, "fair_value_reference": 13.992536, "structural_low": 15.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.000666, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.006976, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.295945, "worst_return": -0.185827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.022211, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026997, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.342537, "worst_return": -0.265114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.05043, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.0502, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.77069, "worst_return": -0.403865, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007346, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031498, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.187144, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.25636, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": 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"close": 17.700001, "volume": 99313615, "typical_volume": 103749163.85, "trend": 18.781825, "fair_value": 13.897714, "relative_strength": 5.593793, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.88723, "energy": 16.30182, "activity_lines": [ 18.244667, 18.803373, 18.383155, 18.457011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.540001, "volume": 75354209, "typical_volume": 96833718.95, "trend": 18.783158, "fair_value": 13.945965, "relative_strength": 15.207177, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.85959, "energy": 9.981375, "activity_lines": [ 18.478, 18.948164, 18.534037, 18.505925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.48, "volume": 82108153, "typical_volume": 91464712.8, "trend": 18.783825, "fair_value": 13.992536, "relative_strength": 10.992255, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.885342, "energy": 4.931288, "activity_lines": [ 18.802667, 19.026627, 18.671396, 18.550883 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }