{ "ticker": { "uuid": "798e63c4-e2a7-4a4a-815d-b18e2e655276", "symbol": "I1PC34", "name": "International Paper Company", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 51.103, "architecture_energy": 45.708, "architecture_maturity": 21.186, "architecture_confidence": 75.001, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.32, "rotation_up": 61.87, "upward_expansion": 36.89, "deceleration": 42.07, "rotation_down": 18.8, "downward_expansion": 29.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 194.686006, 192.870003, 183.164304, 185.120156 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 208.130005, "trend_reference": 192.426989, "distance_from_trend": 0.081605, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 223.608139, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.06922, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.763112, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.023916, "excess_performance": 0.033132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081605, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028035, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.06922, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.22424, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047631, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.382489, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023916, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.982412, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6, "relative_activity": 0.013106, "balance": 1.982412, "dry_up": 0.723023, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033958, "annualized_volatility": 0.545505, "from_high_reference": -0.217584, "from_low_reference": 0.425707 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 192.426989, "fair_value_reference": 223.608139, "structural_low": 145.983688, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.084244, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.058665, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.027523, "worst_return": -0.173198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.165112, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.197072, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.042533, "worst_return": -0.36045, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.134657, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.236215, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.02444, "worst_return": -0.227263, "sufficient": false }, 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138949, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006326, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.114036, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105918, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", 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"activity_lines": [ 192.336004, 187.655091, 179.299647, 184.580791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 186.960007, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 467.55, "trend": 192.86173, "fair_value": 223.283561, "relative_strength": -18.00599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.537413, "energy": 27.841874, "activity_lines": [ 189.434672, 188.594002, 180.145885, 184.135106 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 208.130005, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 457.8, "trend": 192.426989, "fair_value": 223.608139, "relative_strength": -4.763112, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.103438, "energy": 45.707662, "activity_lines": [ 194.686006, 192.870003, 183.164304, 185.120156 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }