{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79910c5a-ab0f-41d2-abbf-36b54912a7c5", "symbol": "000045", "name": "Shenzhen Textile (Holdings) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.616, "architecture_energy": 60.837, "architecture_maturity": 60.718, "architecture_confidence": 88.886, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 19.97, "upward_expansion": 10.59, "deceleration": 59.67, "rotation_down": 62.66, "downward_expansion": 83.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.455333, 9.65873, 10.408094, 11.016195 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.93, "trend_reference": 11.711537, "distance_from_trend": -0.152118, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.659, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068393, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.86228, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.21502, "excess_performance": -0.22242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152118, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06531, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068393, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212815, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198623, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024734, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21502, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.991148, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37153193, "relative_activity": 0.932991, "balance": 0.991148, "dry_up": 0.924768, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08099, "annualized_volatility": 0.373896, "from_high_reference": -0.392289, "from_low_reference": 0.170991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.711537, "fair_value_reference": 10.659, "structural_low": 8.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.038612, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009148, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.123768, "worst_return": -0.126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.087217, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.021866, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.376985, "worst_return": -0.195525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.067278, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.047633, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.374627, "worst_return": -0.125516, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 92.146535, "activity_lines": [ 10.025333, 10.557464, 11.26421, 11.692958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.93, "volume": 25131960, "typical_volume": 44542877.6, "trend": 11.976537, "fair_value": 10.686139, "relative_strength": -26.19092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.98106, "energy": 94.927913, "activity_lines": [ 9.598667, 10.178671, 10.985657, 11.489891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.74, "volume": 28699746, "typical_volume": 42506815.35, "trend": 11.86787, "fair_value": 10.671321, "relative_strength": -27.552102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.721178, "energy": 93.437002, "activity_lines": [ 9.224, 9.825095, 10.709295, 11.281082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.62, "volume": 56318062, "typical_volume": 42271342.85, "trend": 11.78787, "fair_value": 10.662524, "relative_strength": -18.657362, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.389195, "energy": 71.750209, "activity_lines": [ 9.275333, 9.690755, 10.53598, 11.136058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.93, "volume": 37153193, "typical_volume": 39821595.25, "trend": 11.711537, "fair_value": 10.659, "relative_strength": -19.86228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.615597, "energy": 60.836636, "activity_lines": [ 9.455333, 9.65873, 10.408094, 11.016195 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }