{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79925467-5a40-4fa3-bfd1-acff613f5c0a", "symbol": "PMAY", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF - May", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.897, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.577, "architecture_energy": 57.612, "architecture_maturity": 40.573, "architecture_confidence": 72.051, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.14, "rotation_up": 65.45, "upward_expansion": 83.44, "deceleration": 57.56, "rotation_down": 20.34, "downward_expansion": 7.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.637133, 41.469918, 41.24646, 40.9471 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 42.08, "trend_reference": 40.56568, "distance_from_trend": 0.03733, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.956103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170316, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.041436, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.056225, "excess_performance": -0.0694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03733, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016819, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.170316, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000883, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060414, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005648, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056225, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.97285, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85901, "relative_activity": 0.108245, "balance": 2.97285, "dry_up": 0.192386, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011504, "annualized_volatility": 0.04795, "from_high_reference": -0.000947, "from_low_reference": 0.101222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.56568, "fair_value_reference": 35.956103, "structural_low": 39.3401, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.007711, "positive_rate": 0.755556, "directional_follow_through": 0.755556, "median_excess_return": -0.006989, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.029188, "worst_return": -0.026559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.016509, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.021382, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.048622, "worst_return": -0.051901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.047088, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.044173, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.071076, "worst_return": -0.058314, 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35.803796, "relative_strength": -3.966109, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.903997, "energy": 47.11603, "activity_lines": [ 41.338933, 41.272925, 41.054504, 40.774381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.51, "volume": 306557, "typical_volume": 797293.1, "trend": 40.488013, "fair_value": 35.87809, "relative_strength": -4.259463, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.184556, "energy": 47.751652, "activity_lines": [ 41.4137, 41.322649, 41.127566, 40.844391 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.08, "volume": 85901, "typical_volume": 793576.75, "trend": 40.56568, "fair_value": 35.956103, "relative_strength": -6.041436, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.577141, "energy": 57.611648, "activity_lines": [ 41.637133, 41.469918, 41.24646, 40.9471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }