{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7992a4e3-717c-4316-92bd-635afdcf88ae", "symbol": "002470", "name": "Kingenta Ecological Engineering Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.702, "architecture_energy": 74.797, "architecture_maturity": 23.789, "architecture_confidence": 95.66, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.18, "rotation_up": 23.1, "upward_expansion": 17.97, "deceleration": 40.38, "rotation_down": 59.23, "downward_expansion": 91.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.888667, 1.930545, 2.159667, 2.313656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.95, "trend_reference": 2.381667, "distance_from_trend": -0.181246, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.856282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050487, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.097349, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.0074, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181246, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018096, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050487, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.51615, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110973, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27191, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.318726, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 372592200, "relative_activity": 0.485682, "balance": 0.318726, "dry_up": 0.598394, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099803, "annualized_volatility": 0.697101, "from_high_reference": -0.489529, "from_low_reference": 0.160714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.381667, "fair_value_reference": 1.856282, "structural_low": 1.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.006039, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": 0.001174, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 0.178218, "worst_return": -0.195402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.047139, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.016513, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.780303, "worst_return": -0.134969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.054446, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009894, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.251748, "worst_return": -0.178161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -48.058592, "energy": 74.960082, "activity_lines": [ 1.998667, 2.134364, 2.41181, 2.443957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.8, "volume": 526372500, "typical_volume": 1218509928.4, "trend": 2.371333, "fair_value": 1.861859, "relative_strength": -15.023447, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.609899, "energy": 79.560319, "activity_lines": [ 1.918667, 2.044727, 2.333667, 2.407204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.83, "volume": 545722123, "typical_volume": 1081792984.7, "trend": 2.372667, "fair_value": 1.859615, "relative_strength": -13.76686, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.8043, "energy": 87.035128, "activity_lines": [ 1.876, 1.980182, 2.264571, 2.37228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.89, "volume": 391551800, "typical_volume": 954320970.6, "trend": 2.376, "fair_value": 1.857564, "relative_strength": -9.417196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.92295, "energy": 83.236527, "activity_lines": [ 1.869333, 1.944545, 2.206095, 2.34114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.95, "volume": 372592200, "typical_volume": 767153330.1, "trend": 2.381667, "fair_value": 1.856282, "relative_strength": -11.097349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.702491, "energy": 74.796507, "activity_lines": [ 1.888667, 1.930545, 2.159667, 2.313656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }