{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7992afca-465a-4c26-b5d6-45df20b83dd6", "symbol": "SFCA", "name": "Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Fran\u00e7aise de Casinos Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.107, "architecture_energy": 47.991, "architecture_maturity": 44.161, "architecture_confidence": 90.227, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.18, "rotation_up": 61.98, "upward_expansion": 81.48, "deceleration": 55.98, "rotation_down": 19.2, "downward_expansion": 5.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.365333, 2.321091, 2.205048, 2.120237 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.46, "trend_reference": 2.014333, "distance_from_trend": 0.221248, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.809487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.359501, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.565521, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.301587, "excess_performance": 0.248276, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.221248, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100127, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.359501, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.322155, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.195655, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.199656, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.301587, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.281369, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1106, "relative_activity": 1.338821, "balance": 3.281369, "dry_up": 1.069786, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093496, "annualized_volatility": 0.672773, "from_high_reference": -0.12766, "from_low_reference": 0.576923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.014333, "fair_value_reference": 1.809487, "structural_low": 1.7, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.007902, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.006715, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.165049, "worst_return": -0.116751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005814, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.066891, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.125683, "worst_return": -0.137056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02907, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.021825, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.143678, "worst_return": -0.095477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"up", "direction": 71.988221, "energy": 50.021308, "activity_lines": [ 2.252, 2.208364, 2.079762, 2.015763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.4, "volume": 450, "typical_volume": 778.0, "trend": 1.95, "fair_value": 1.800192, "relative_strength": 23.012205, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.50007, "energy": 71.042171, "activity_lines": [ 2.322667, 2.254909, 2.11719, 2.046194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 722.35, "trend": 1.973, "fair_value": 1.803782, "relative_strength": 21.949994, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.227059, "energy": 78.253633, "activity_lines": [ 2.370667, 2.291455, 2.152714, 2.075226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.2, "volume": 1979, "typical_volume": 801.3, "trend": 1.989333, "fair_value": 1.806218, "relative_strength": 9.803415, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.707254, "energy": 55.741973, "activity_lines": [ 2.329333, 2.285818, 2.167381, 2.089871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.46, "volume": 1106, "typical_volume": 826.1, "trend": 2.014333, "fair_value": 1.809487, "relative_strength": 19.565521, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.106714, "energy": 47.991328, "activity_lines": [ 2.365333, 2.321091, 2.205048, 2.120237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }