{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7993b05c-351d-48dd-9944-ceae94da34ca", "symbol": "SBH", "name": "Sally Beauty Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 70.796, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 51.865, "architecture_energy": 52.467, "architecture_maturity": 20.996, "architecture_confidence": 67.204, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.75, "rotation_up": 68.74, "upward_expansion": 58.53, "deceleration": 24.16, "rotation_down": 18.38, "downward_expansion": 16.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.533333, 15.015636, 14.345476, 14.306538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.83, "trend_reference": 14.478, "distance_from_trend": 0.162453, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.076154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.393656, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.104895, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.04146, "excess_performance": -0.084164, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.162453, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012796, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.393656, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213825, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021049, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09152, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04146, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.280939, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10322247, "relative_activity": 1.433813, "balance": 1.280939, "dry_up": 1.027797, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083591, "annualized_volatility": 0.455492, "from_high_reference": -0.060826, "from_low_reference": 0.458406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.478, "fair_value_reference": 12.076154, "structural_low": 11.54, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.064938, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.030751, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.383661, "worst_return": -0.086553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.029272, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.074518, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.524302, "worst_return": -0.147452, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.197836, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.319043, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.598759, "worst_return": -0.308812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5614529, "typical_volume": 7179787.35, "trend": 14.426, "fair_value": 12.016154, "relative_strength": -6.41526, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.869122, "energy": 32.044028, "activity_lines": [ 14.755333, 14.333455, 13.959143, 14.117376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.97, "volume": 7135732, "typical_volume": 7161836.5, "trend": 14.442, "fair_value": 12.039231, "relative_strength": -5.715618, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.361674, "energy": 36.22118, "activity_lines": [ 14.851333, 14.526909, 14.064762, 14.152473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.83, "volume": 10322247, "typical_volume": 7199159.7, "trend": 14.478, "fair_value": 12.076154, "relative_strength": 2.104895, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.865317, "energy": 52.467097, "activity_lines": [ 15.533333, 15.015636, 14.345476, 14.306538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }