{ "ticker": { "uuid": "799b0361-b955-4cd2-b9b8-79fd28d8479a", "symbol": "CEC", "name": "Ceconomy AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.407, "architecture_energy": 23.728, "architecture_maturity": 93.752, "architecture_confidence": 60.057, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.31, "rotation_up": 34.07, "upward_expansion": 18.77, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 18.8, "downward_expansion": 52.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.994, 3.930455, 3.957643, 4.040366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.01, "trend_reference": 4.152833, "distance_from_trend": -0.034394, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.248551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234396, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.130993, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.091733, "excess_performance": -0.265979, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034394, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042501, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234396, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124497, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.24131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10342, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091733, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.375634, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.375634, "dry_up": 0.81324, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039708, "annualized_volatility": 0.150377, "from_high_reference": -0.119649, "from_low_reference": 0.083784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.152833, "fair_value_reference": 3.248551, "structural_low": 3.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.005215, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.002553, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.406051, "worst_return": -0.337868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009456, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048333, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.46556, "worst_return": -0.545283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011634, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.144208, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.890456, "worst_return": -0.639437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.173831, 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"teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117981, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013267, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047157, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.146405, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004551, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038593, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.050888, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.564, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 25.0, "trend": 2.430733, "fair_value": 3.27036, "relative_strength": 21.712547, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.328702, "energy": 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-26.539313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.071128, "energy": 59.037364, "activity_lines": [ 3.824667, 3.852636, 3.988714, 4.090634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.985, "volume": 1353, "typical_volume": 750.05, "trend": 4.199667, "fair_value": 3.223718, "relative_strength": -23.06736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.556695, "energy": 40.922713, "activity_lines": [ 3.884, 3.864727, 3.976952, 4.075903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.97, "volume": 1298, "typical_volume": 814.95, "trend": 4.182667, "fair_value": 3.231756, "relative_strength": -23.915741, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.034687, "energy": 24.745661, "activity_lines": [ 3.927333, 3.878818, 3.965833, 4.061086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.02, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 814.95, "trend": 4.1685, "fair_value": 3.239962, "relative_strength": -22.286747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.579001, "energy": 24.926243, "activity_lines": [ 3.972667, 3.906545, 3.96131, 4.050591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.01, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 814.95, "trend": 4.152833, "fair_value": 3.248551, "relative_strength": -24.130993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.407324, "energy": 23.727544, "activity_lines": [ 3.994, 3.930455, 3.957643, 4.040366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }