{ "ticker": { "uuid": "799c6a71-82a5-4709-b815-dbcd81784076", "symbol": "REUS", "name": "VanEck Circular Economy UCITS ETF A USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.599, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.135, "architecture_energy": 79.954, "architecture_maturity": 13.927, "architecture_confidence": 55.694, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.51, "rotation_up": 77.21, "upward_expansion": 89.56, "deceleration": 46.01, "rotation_down": 10.21, "downward_expansion": 16.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.969667, 24.765273, 24.430262, 24.343376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.450001, "trend_reference": 24.259167, "distance_from_trend": 0.049088, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.861641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16414, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.399547, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.054048, "excess_performance": -0.116843, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049088, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034205, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16414, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036481, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063995, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002205, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054048, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.182441, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2108, "relative_activity": 1.857023, "balance": 0.182441, "dry_up": 1.90063, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016322, "annualized_volatility": 0.128675, "from_high_reference": -0.005276, "from_low_reference": 0.189252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.259167, "fair_value_reference": 21.861641, "structural_low": 23.15, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.013078, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006134, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.038365, "worst_return": -0.049968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016714, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.053949, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.057934, "worst_return": -0.05862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.075617, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.090326, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.093984, "worst_return": -0.052347, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 24.704667, 24.408909, 24.194548, 24.182613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.715, "volume": 6061, "typical_volume": 1109.65, "trend": 24.118167, "fair_value": 21.799526, "relative_strength": -6.180124, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.608298, "energy": 77.722699, "activity_lines": [ 24.74, 24.498091, 24.251595, 24.226548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.67, "volume": 230, "typical_volume": 1034.85, "trend": 24.191, "fair_value": 21.828084, "relative_strength": -6.769033, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.259843, "energy": 67.229084, "activity_lines": [ 24.728667, 24.569091, 24.305, 24.262151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.450001, "volume": 2108, "typical_volume": 1135.15, "trend": 24.259167, "fair_value": 21.861641, "relative_strength": -6.399547, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.135339, "energy": 79.954414, "activity_lines": [ 24.969667, 24.765273, 24.430262, 24.343376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }