{ "ticker": { "uuid": "799fcc0d-442e-4aba-8cf7-3d5f9a1b2c6c", "symbol": "ALIT", "name": "Alight Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.146, "architecture_energy": 15.37, "architecture_maturity": 23.087, "architecture_confidence": 64.574, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.86, "rotation_up": 36.43, "upward_expansion": 34.21, "deceleration": 35.01, "rotation_down": 23.72, "downward_expansion": 42.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.548667, 16.756218, 16.135114, 16.209484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.12, "trend_reference": 17.916333, "distance_from_trend": -0.156077, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 103.288286, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.853614, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.748967, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.5275, "excess_performance": -0.653125, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156077, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315821, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.853614, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014532, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.60749, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10305, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5275, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.340904, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4524133, "relative_activity": 0.044364, "balance": 1.340904, "dry_up": 0.033036, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.298376, "annualized_volatility": 1.387963, "from_high_reference": -0.81452, "from_low_reference": 0.578947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.916333, "fair_value_reference": 103.288286, "structural_low": 9.576, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.031998, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.004154, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.308101, "worst_return": -0.329225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.058771, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.084391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101675, "worst_return": -0.459341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.196486, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.187647, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.191542, "worst_return": -0.699768, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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107.302264, "relative_strength": -56.719196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.832299, "energy": 18.948833, "activity_lines": [ 15.188267, 15.190618, 14.977952, 16.555634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.74, "volume": 3658110, "typical_volume": 138659431.3, "trend": 19.890667, "fair_value": 106.243508, "relative_strength": -48.958742, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.665006, "energy": 13.558248, "activity_lines": [ 17.629067, 16.302509, 15.620324, 16.638258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.87, "volume": 2451950, "typical_volume": 129406424.95, "trend": 19.206333, "fair_value": 105.16268, "relative_strength": -53.033057, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.027021, "energy": 20.44268, "activity_lines": [ 18.6824, 16.837455, 15.969619, 16.572409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.98, "volume": 2841512, "typical_volume": 114421540.5, "trend": 18.519, "fair_value": 104.23267, "relative_strength": -56.038297, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.612097, "energy": 25.117449, "activity_lines": [ 18.606667, 16.971564, 16.13779, 16.428774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.12, "volume": 4524133, "typical_volume": 101977859.35, "trend": 17.916333, "fair_value": 103.288286, "relative_strength": -60.748967, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.14581, "energy": 15.370314, "activity_lines": [ 17.548667, 16.756218, 16.135114, 16.209484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }