{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79a8b0e1-06a5-4afc-9ba3-7553e89da7c0", "symbol": "300781", "name": "Guangdong Insight Brand Marketing Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.377, "architecture_energy": 44.646, "architecture_maturity": 85.095, "architecture_confidence": 72.594, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.02, "rotation_up": 24.65, "upward_expansion": 13.47, "deceleration": 66.85, "rotation_down": 49.72, "downward_expansion": 74.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.594666, 26.536, 28.80519, 31.205935 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 28.969999, "trend_reference": 34.854666, "distance_from_trend": -0.168834, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.572937, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.137103, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.641415, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.470093, "excess_performance": -0.477493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168834, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078406, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.137103, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268363, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236414, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0082, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.470093, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.564673, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42411860, "relative_activity": 2.064117, "balance": 0.564673, "dry_up": 1.517637, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117681, "annualized_volatility": 0.504766, "from_high_reference": -0.501033, "from_low_reference": 0.288128 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.854666, "fair_value_reference": 33.572937, "structural_low": 22.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.033091, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.049567, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.825577, "worst_return": -0.18951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.119532, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.059763, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.646742, "worst_return": -0.193746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.17835, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.133665, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.591346, "worst_return": -0.196007, 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27.4, 30.321572, 32.90815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.889999, "volume": 24535517, "typical_volume": 19492218.65, "trend": 35.230666, "fair_value": 33.406918, "relative_strength": -39.17587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.024952, "energy": 74.984348, "activity_lines": [ 24.672666, 26.272727, 29.406191, 32.091032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.59, "volume": 31029979, "typical_volume": 19286203.5, "trend": 35.048333, "fair_value": 33.483506, "relative_strength": -24.571832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.650374, "energy": 57.119473, "activity_lines": [ 25.458, 26.224364, 29.017143, 31.598086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.969999, "volume": 42411860, "typical_volume": 20547218.8, "trend": 34.854666, "fair_value": 33.572937, "relative_strength": -23.641415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.376646, "energy": 44.646225, "activity_lines": [ 26.594666, 26.536, 28.80519, 31.205935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }