{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79acc3b4-477a-4c6b-8cd1-b61fa92e0c64", "symbol": "BCS", "name": "Bergen Carbon Solutions AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.193, "architecture_energy": 32.498, "architecture_maturity": 68.372, "architecture_confidence": 90.187, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.28, "rotation_up": 32.14, "upward_expansion": 62.27, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 26.21, "downward_expansion": 16.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.410667, 6.588, 5.603571, 5.047161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.96, "trend_reference": 4.471333, "distance_from_trend": 0.332936, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.848526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.01906, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.005766, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.46798, "excess_performance": 0.342987, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.332936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201218, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.01906, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.398271, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.240058, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.434796, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.46798, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.588708, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 504610, "relative_activity": 1.384353, "balance": 0.588708, "dry_up": 1.147811, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.219024, "annualized_volatility": 1.139569, "from_high_reference": -0.379167, "from_low_reference": 1.083916 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.471333, "fair_value_reference": 5.848526, "structural_low": 2.86, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.042593, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.057738, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.19891, "worst_return": -0.219149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.087234, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.075339, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.083333, "worst_return": -0.369231, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.244504, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.335857, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.17234, "worst_return": -0.316667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.615741, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.73115, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.615741, "worst_return": -0.615741, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-10-28", "end": "2023-06-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.395588, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-07-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-07-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01797, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.337041, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.203704, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.585871, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.521127, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.06383, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128205, "active": false 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"fair_value": 5.899808, "relative_strength": 33.211754, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.490689, "energy": 86.788206, "activity_lines": [ 7.086, 6.125818, 5.054667, 4.625398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.88, "volume": 262925, "typical_volume": 350226.2, "trend": 4.325, "fair_value": 5.884359, "relative_strength": 44.671189, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.038266, "energy": 62.317804, "activity_lines": [ 7.08, 6.412364, 5.290381, 4.797548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.64, "volume": 324751, "typical_volume": 351700.35, "trend": 4.406, "fair_value": 5.869295, "relative_strength": 38.836842, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.748993, "energy": 46.505909, "activity_lines": [ 6.817333, 6.592, 5.487714, 4.946903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.96, "volume": 504610, "typical_volume": 364509.65, "trend": 4.471333, "fair_value": 5.848526, "relative_strength": 24.005766, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.192832, "energy": 32.498499, "activity_lines": [ 6.410667, 6.588, 5.603571, 5.047161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }