{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79b3b34d-0133-4957-b31e-bfe65645d347", "symbol": "RION", "name": "Rio Tinto Group", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.873, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.498, "architecture_energy": 65.803, "architecture_maturity": 10.756, "architecture_confidence": 65.404, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.36, "rotation_up": 14.22, "upward_expansion": 30.18, "deceleration": 49.6, "rotation_down": 73.92, "downward_expansion": 59.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 1600.528003, 1628.191278, 1683.833004, 1681.79554 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1651.0, "trend_reference": 1666.750757, "distance_from_trend": -0.00945, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1286.11155, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283714, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.225961, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.027551, "excess_performance": 0.082218, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00945, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064603, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283714, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179541, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.08226, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129442, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027551, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.144761, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 118, "relative_activity": 0.119998, "balance": 0.144761, "dry_up": 0.643464, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029661, "annualized_volatility": 0.235935, "from_high_reference": -0.143672, "from_low_reference": 0.439692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1666.750757, "fair_value_reference": 1286.11155, "structural_low": 1490.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.022283, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.026753, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.054587, "worst_return": -0.070732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.060567, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.081193, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092051, "worst_return": -0.1634, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.069609, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.050498, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084191, "worst_return": -0.082078, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.013484, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021363, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.177641, "worst_return": -0.204609, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104186, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058564, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.191006, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070248, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054587, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.050262, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105295, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.147929, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086631, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000604, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04038, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1001.546509, "volume": 1627, "typical_volume": 2979.15, "trend": 1170.322274, "fair_value": 1366.211039, "relative_strength": -18.243083, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"trend": 1646.221289, "fair_value": 1273.078778, "relative_strength": 6.173795, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -25.635831, "energy": 38.093812, "activity_lines": [ 1667.640015, 1717.650555, 1723.209273, 1697.40232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1574.0, "volume": 2413, "typical_volume": 1130.3, "trend": 1652.426253, "fair_value": 1276.041712, "relative_strength": 4.724353, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.298593, "energy": 53.105127, "activity_lines": [ 1626.645345, 1685.501281, 1711.005766, 1692.742882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1574.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1048.15, "trend": 1655.848857, "fair_value": 1278.96657, "relative_strength": 4.832628, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.790502, "energy": 73.012939, "activity_lines": [ 1597.917342, 1657.606552, 1699.375957, 1687.683124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1574.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1009.85, "trend": 1660.4087, "fair_value": 1282.043736, "relative_strength": 3.648557, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.741824, "energy": 76.485328, "activity_lines": [ 1581.456006, 1633.808006, 1687.917576, 1682.402553 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1651.0, "volume": 118, "typical_volume": 983.35, "trend": 1666.750757, "fair_value": 1286.11155, "relative_strength": 8.225961, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.497846, "energy": 65.802583, "activity_lines": [ 1600.528003, 1628.191278, 1683.833004, 1681.79554 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }