{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79bc1a5c-9c6b-4470-b732-479435aa4799", "symbol": "IVE", "name": "ISHARES TRUST S&P 500 VALUE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.09, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.971, "architecture_energy": 78.651, "architecture_maturity": 35.113, "architecture_confidence": 77.27, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.56, "rotation_up": 73.71, "upward_expansion": 94.12, "deceleration": 43.45, "rotation_down": 18.98, "downward_expansion": 16.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 232.840667, 231.138208, 228.235419, 225.059693 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 235.78, "trend_reference": 221.616021, "distance_from_trend": 0.063912, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 189.749478, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242586, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.103764, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069832, "excess_performance": -0.055793, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063912, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031151, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242586, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023771, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021038, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010998, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069832, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.389421, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3165374, "relative_activity": 0.715336, "balance": 1.389421, "dry_up": 0.754399, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01648, "annualized_volatility": 0.089394, "from_high_reference": -0.00258, "from_low_reference": 0.21044 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 221.616021, "fair_value_reference": 189.749478, "structural_low": 206.159495, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.012841, "positive_rate": 0.707317, "directional_follow_through": 0.707317, "median_excess_return": 0.001312, "regime_survival": 0.780488, "best_return": 0.057754, "worst_return": -0.062137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.025103, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.009374, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.082997, "worst_return": -0.043287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.075274, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.001835, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.103249, "worst_return": -0.026627, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 230.652667, 229.268684, 226.115644, 223.364342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 231.71, "volume": 4173868, "typical_volume": 4523118.3, "trend": 220.948523, "fair_value": 189.228263, "relative_strength": -0.448308, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.485657, "energy": 72.19231, "activity_lines": [ 231.241333, 229.875018, 227.033155, 224.102824 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 235.78, "volume": 3165374, "typical_volume": 4425017.35, "trend": 221.616021, "fair_value": 189.749478, "relative_strength": -2.103764, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.971296, "energy": 78.65116, "activity_lines": [ 232.840667, 231.138208, 228.235419, 225.059693 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }