{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79c4bd7d-993f-4a81-8c99-226a175956d0", "symbol": "HIVE", "name": "HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 68.308, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.726, "architecture_energy": 16.236, "architecture_maturity": 43.827, "architecture_confidence": 76.195, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.27, "rotation_up": 15.45, "upward_expansion": 40.89, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 44.91, "downward_expansion": 37.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.896667, 3.162364, 3.260667, 3.052172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.84, "trend_reference": 2.857333, "distance_from_trend": -0.006066, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.064936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07339, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.536624, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.218884, "excess_performance": 0.03143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006066, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024256, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.07339, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026628, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225366, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053042, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.218884, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.884028, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69827067, "relative_activity": 0.626222, "balance": 0.884028, "dry_up": 0.691749, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.292386, "annualized_volatility": 0.899954, "from_high_reference": -0.637755, "from_low_reference": 0.641618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.857333, "fair_value_reference": 3.064936, "structural_low": 1.73, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009821, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019805, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.226148, "worst_return": -0.405229, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.23744, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.2508, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.015873, "worst_return": -0.494949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.039794, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.091111, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.511111, "worst_return": -0.393939, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.195251, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.53082, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.084175, "worst_return": -0.7104, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023569, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.294737, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013043, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.241379, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122034, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020761, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143382, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.276018, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083538, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.213615, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003509, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.79, "volume": 5848460, "typical_volume": 6588517.3, "trend": 3.671667, "fair_value": 8.183313, "relative_strength": -2.387617, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.770082, "energy": 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-18.843908, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.009983, "energy": 19.34489, "activity_lines": [ 3.312667, 3.572, 3.290905, 3.049226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.96, "volume": 76290261, "typical_volume": 108567648.35, "trend": 2.863, "fair_value": 3.08859, "relative_strength": -14.44299, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.79797, "energy": 21.697455, "activity_lines": [ 3.117333, 3.446364, 3.292762, 3.056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.83, "volume": 90777106, "typical_volume": 110654719.85, "trend": 2.866333, "fair_value": 3.076731, "relative_strength": -18.781942, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.676422, "energy": 18.835684, "activity_lines": [ 2.965333, 3.292182, 3.277905, 3.053871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.84, "volume": 69827067, "typical_volume": 111505379.9, "trend": 2.857333, "fair_value": 3.064936, "relative_strength": -22.536624, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.726012, "energy": 16.236033, "activity_lines": [ 2.896667, 3.162364, 3.260667, 3.052172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }