{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79c7b235-5da1-41c2-8040-95ee924b2ee2", "symbol": "600433", "name": "Guangdong Guanhao High-Tech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.848, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.209, "architecture_energy": 44.362, "architecture_maturity": 19.603, "architecture_confidence": 90.365, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.96, "rotation_up": 19.75, "upward_expansion": 6.62, "deceleration": 47.99, "rotation_down": 52.41, "downward_expansion": 77.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.25, 3.259636, 3.564333, 3.633441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.35, "trend_reference": 3.655, "distance_from_trend": -0.083447, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.218976, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040704, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.787283, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.048295, "excess_performance": -0.005092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083447, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005041, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040704, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.531284, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027873, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.401232, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048295, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.289915, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 156202220, "relative_activity": 0.557903, "balance": 0.289915, "dry_up": 0.706257, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104707, "annualized_volatility": 0.46705, "from_high_reference": -0.375, "from_low_reference": 0.109272 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.655, "fair_value_reference": 3.218976, "structural_low": 3.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014837, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006217, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.051429, "worst_return": -0.025101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.008613, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.022533, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.165714, "worst_return": -0.057522, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.002994, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.003204, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071429, "worst_return": -0.292035, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.136551, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.053021, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.131862, "worst_return": -0.14124, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122977, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.116981, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021944, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105882, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.163265, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104956, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02589, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033046, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018809, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021084, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106109, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.065527, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.113314, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005935, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 3.432039, "volume": 37936762, "typical_volume": 54072136.3, "trend": 3.701596, "fair_value": 3.819948, "relative_strength": -6.482798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 3.23, "volume": 166417488, "typical_volume": 291756218.9, "trend": 3.657, "fair_value": 3.221588, "relative_strength": -8.029374, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.229555, "energy": 55.4707, "activity_lines": [ 3.279333, 3.535091, 3.77681, 3.747441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.05, "volume": 226291821, "typical_volume": 295529058.05, "trend": 3.655, "fair_value": 3.219705, "relative_strength": -7.602708, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.765503, "energy": 59.460783, "activity_lines": [ 3.190667, 3.391636, 3.704667, 3.70828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.13, "volume": 244674510, "typical_volume": 296961491.2, "trend": 3.652333, "fair_value": 3.218209, "relative_strength": -6.301426, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.753177, "energy": 50.171349, "activity_lines": [ 3.160667, 3.298909, 3.642952, 3.674409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.32, "volume": 163784622, "typical_volume": 286072685.0, "trend": 3.652667, "fair_value": 3.218622, "relative_strength": -1.017587, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.160844, "energy": 43.37929, "activity_lines": [ 3.206667, 3.267455, 3.601333, 3.652968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.35, "volume": 156202220, "typical_volume": 279980842.7, "trend": 3.655, "fair_value": 3.218976, "relative_strength": -2.787283, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.209282, "energy": 44.362146, "activity_lines": [ 3.25, 3.259636, 3.564333, 3.633441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }