{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "79c8fc42-0894-49d7-ad33-24d3116cc38c",
    "symbol": "SX5E3L",
    "name": "SG ETC EURO STOXX 50 +3x Daily Leveraged Collateralized",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 84.277,
    "architecture_energy": 60.546,
    "architecture_maturity": 54.64,
    "architecture_confidence": 81.639,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 13.29,
        "rotation_up": 56.65,
        "upward_expansion": 80.13,
        "deceleration": 66.59,
        "rotation_down": 24.23,
        "downward_expansion": 9.13
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        186.07,
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        167.517074
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 200.279999,
    "trend_reference": 161.284999,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.241777,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 114.814017,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.744386,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 15.757521,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.256541,
    "excess_performance": 0.085649,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.241777,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.086194,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.744386,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.32421,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.157575,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.169129,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.256541,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 5.795229,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 455,
      "relative_activity": 1.369039,
      "balance": 5.795229,
      "dry_up": 0.476155,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.055326,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.531979,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004869,
      "from_low_reference": 0.758539
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 161.284999,
      "fair_value_reference": 114.814017,
      "structural_low": 114.470001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 32,
        "median_return": 0.008368,
        "positive_rate": 0.53125,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.53125,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002015,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.29514,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "worst_return": -0.166359,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "worst_return": -0.441767,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.406847,
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        "fair_value": 106.44453,
        "relative_strength": -1.155397,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 19.409025,
        "energy": 19.458723,
        "activity_lines": [
          151.128,
          145.895818,
          148.356523,
          148.112157
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 152.660004,
        "volume": 65,
        "typical_volume": 355.65,
        "trend": 146.803556,
        "fair_value": 106.919402,
        "relative_strength": 0.141418,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.324863,
        "energy": 21.000672,
        "activity_lines": [
          151.388668,
          147.81491,
          148.571762,
          148.530294
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 162.509995,
        "volume": 155,
        "typical_volume": 347.55,
        "trend": 147.602999,
        "fair_value": 107.478184,
        "relative_strength": 5.560293,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.73706,
        "energy": 33.547684,
        "activity_lines": [
          154.779999,
          151.218909,
          149.679476,
          149.543612
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 164.009995,
        "volume": 2170,
        "typical_volume": 425.85,
        "trend": 148.486332,
        "fair_value": 108.051966,
        "relative_strength": 5.255965,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.357225,
        "energy": 40.932116,
        "activity_lines": [
          158.577331,
          154.504181,
          150.871428,
          150.602128
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 167.039993,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 406.9,
        "trend": 149.695999,
        "fair_value": 108.657607,
        "relative_strength": 7.314146,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.375666,
        "energy": 58.996335,
        "activity_lines": [
          162.350662,
          157.721634,
          152.339951,
          151.799139
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 173.050003,
        "volume": 2,
        "typical_volume": 383.2,
        "trend": 150.686666,
        "fair_value": 109.263889,
        "relative_strength": 7.428155,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.503106,
        "energy": 72.353288,
        "activity_lines": [
          166.874664,
          161.207089,
          154.366285,
          153.305848
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 184.059998,
        "volume": 20,
        "typical_volume": 381.6,
        "trend": 152.432332,
        "fair_value": 109.985812,
        "relative_strength": 10.909934,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.360958,
        "energy": 81.593315,
        "activity_lines": [
          173.609998,
          165.969635,
          157.345713,
          155.458967
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 176.679993,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 380.9,
        "trend": 153.785332,
        "fair_value": 110.616453,
        "relative_strength": 9.421506,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.492074,
        "energy": 78.255181,
        "activity_lines": [
          175.791996,
          168.777815,
          159.475617,
          157.023332
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 192.449997,
        "volume": 12,
        "typical_volume": 364.45,
        "trend": 155.485999,
        "fair_value": 111.405556,
        "relative_strength": 15.219084,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.687509,
        "energy": 88.445448,
        "activity_lines": [
          182.285997,
          174.169997,
          163.025093,
          159.517826
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 179.279999,
        "volume": 361,
        "typical_volume": 379.5,
        "trend": 156.752666,
        "fair_value": 112.057543,
        "relative_strength": 7.498428,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.656974,
        "energy": 81.97131,
        "activity_lines": [
          182.493997,
          176.368543,
          165.164046,
          161.052923
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 174.720001,
        "volume": 10,
        "typical_volume": 364.9,
        "trend": 157.815332,
        "fair_value": 112.690684,
        "relative_strength": 5.939913,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.404521,
        "energy": 66.032166,
        "activity_lines": [
          180.365998,
          177.173816,
          166.825855,
          162.212106
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 173.389999,
        "volume": 132,
        "typical_volume": 322.05,
        "trend": 158.825666,
        "fair_value": 113.281453,
        "relative_strength": 5.014011,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.981295,
        "energy": 48.666334,
        "activity_lines": [
          177.683332,
          177.309089,
          168.351046,
          163.216923
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 185.190002,
        "volume": 36,
        "typical_volume": 312.25,
        "trend": 159.991999,
        "fair_value": 113.996645,
        "relative_strength": 10.78748,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.501888,
        "energy": 45.677651,
        "activity_lines": [
          179.645334,
          179.212908,
          170.821189,
          164.917848
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 200.279999,
        "volume": 455,
        "typical_volume": 332.35,
        "trend": 161.284999,
        "fair_value": 114.814017,
        "relative_strength": 15.757521,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.276903,
        "energy": 60.546146,
        "activity_lines": [
          186.07,
          183.447999,
          174.517951,
          167.517074
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}