{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79d1b8fe-0b71-4f58-af8f-c602f2c910fc", "symbol": "NR21", "name": "NR21 Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.771, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.053, "architecture_energy": 77.343, "architecture_maturity": 14.049, "architecture_confidence": 60.763, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.18, "rotation_up": 18.67, "upward_expansion": 30.31, "deceleration": 40.17, "rotation_down": 70.42, "downward_expansion": 64.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.760002, 46.643638, 47.982858, 48.268388 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 45.400002, "trend_reference": 47.82, "distance_from_trend": -0.050606, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.192949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004582, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.237923, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.034043, "excess_performance": -0.087354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050606, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047153, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004582, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006396, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062379, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034043, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.444444, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.444444, "dry_up": 2.746479, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032192, "annualized_volatility": 0.366034, "from_high_reference": -0.143396, "from_low_reference": 0.164103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.82, "fair_value_reference": 45.192949, "structural_low": 41.400002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030222, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022115, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.282051, "worst_return": -0.154839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.148387, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.092989, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.423077, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.064516, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.018449, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098655, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034654, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097436, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016064, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081633, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075829, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 80.5, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 8.05, "trend": 92.4, "fair_value": 168.493461, "relative_strength": -32.98355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.512272, "energy": 87.222236, 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.895686, "energy": 83.296176, "activity_lines": [ 49.0, 49.043636, 48.125714, 46.610322 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 49.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.9, "trend": 45.2, "fair_value": 48.201923, "relative_strength": 16.353986, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.849176, "energy": 83.183097, "activity_lines": [ 49.0, 49.014545, 48.397143, 46.866236 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 49.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.9, "trend": 45.366666, "fair_value": 47.88141, "relative_strength": 13.338508, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.5, "energy": 85.125, "activity_lines": [ 49.0, 49.0, 48.620952, 47.111398 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 49.0, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 3.15, "trend": 45.666666, "fair_value": 47.564103, "relative_strength": 11.756187, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.5, "energy": 85.125, "activity_lines": [ 49.0, 49.0, 48.797143, 47.345806 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 49.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.15, "trend": 45.8, "fair_value": 47.307692, "relative_strength": 10.643769, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.499999, "energy": 85.124998, "activity_lines": [ 49.0, 49.0, 48.925714, 47.56086 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 53.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.15, "trend": 46.213333, "fair_value": 47.076923, "relative_strength": 17.156499, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.311261, "energy": 77.617805, "activity_lines": [ 50.333333, 49.727273, 49.387619, 48.025376 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 53.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.85, "trend": 46.493333, "fair_value": 46.88141, "relative_strength": 15.61827, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 94.656261, "energy": 78.129552, "activity_lines": [ 51.4, 50.381818, 49.782857, 48.463226 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 53.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.6, "trend": 46.773333, "fair_value": 46.634616, "relative_strength": 15.343971, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 95.222774, "energy": 78.327967, "activity_lines": [ 52.2, 50.963636, 50.129524, 48.883011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 53.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.6, "trend": 47.053333, "fair_value": 46.387821, "relative_strength": 12.81251, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.88185, "energy": 75.058647, "activity_lines": [ 52.733333, 51.472727, 50.447619, 49.284731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.200001, "volume": 27, "typical_volume": 1.65, "trend": 47.12, "fair_value": 46.119872, "relative_strength": -8.663827, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.915321, "energy": 14.153211, "activity_lines": [ 49.4, 49.945455, 49.708571, 48.971613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.200001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.65, "trend": 47.18, "fair_value": 45.874359, "relative_strength": -8.718287, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.441417, "energy": 61.651295, "activity_lines": [ 46.520001, 48.541819, 49.005714, 48.654194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.400002, "volume": 39, "typical_volume": 3.6, "trend": 47.393333, "fair_value": 45.649359, "relative_strength": -2.374228, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.530469, "energy": 53.605314, "activity_lines": [ 45.426668, 47.843637, 48.64381, 48.539355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.400002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.6, "trend": 47.606667, "fair_value": 45.421154, "relative_strength": -3.96151, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.90455, "energy": 57.490692, "activity_lines": [ 44.840002, 47.21091, 48.302858, 48.410753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.400002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.55, "trend": 47.82, "fair_value": 45.192949, "relative_strength": -6.237923, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.05327, "energy": 77.34319, "activity_lines": [ 44.760002, 46.643638, 47.982858, 48.268388 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }