{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79d1e6e9-159d-47e0-9cb3-abb80cb2e6a0", "symbol": "ROCTEC", "name": "Roctec Global Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 74.692, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.669, "architecture_energy": 32.385, "architecture_maturity": 14.708, "architecture_confidence": 62.294, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.93, "rotation_up": 46.09, "upward_expansion": 74.46, "deceleration": 62.29, "rotation_down": 21.14, "downward_expansion": 3.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.675308, 0.670094, 0.653173, 0.636123 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.67, "trend_reference": 0.615037, "distance_from_trend": 0.089365, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.68994, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.028901, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.092346, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.264151, "excess_performance": 0.071826, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089365, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039499, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.028901, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06725, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090923, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059406, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.264151, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.866621, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22413500, "relative_activity": 0.765487, "balance": 8.866621, "dry_up": 1.233672, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092223, "annualized_volatility": 0.41734, "from_high_reference": -0.182927, "from_low_reference": 0.34 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.615037, "fair_value_reference": 0.68994, "structural_low": 0.53, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.01031, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.008503, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.197183, "worst_return": -0.181819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.110392, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.106662, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.203389, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.148538, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.073518, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.400065, "worst_return": -0.27551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.627299, 0.614213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.652637, "volume": 32460500, "typical_volume": 23846090.0, "trend": 0.600176, "fair_value": 0.684523, "relative_strength": -12.906799, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.848577, "energy": 25.644703, "activity_lines": [ 0.656249, 0.659456, 0.631014, 0.617646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.672118, "volume": 47446000, "typical_volume": 25639705.0, "trend": 0.602246, "fair_value": 0.685757, "relative_strength": -11.020959, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.88595, "energy": 25.910688, "activity_lines": [ 0.660603, 0.6632, 0.636523, 0.622288 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.672118, "volume": 30180600, "typical_volume": 26524800.0, "trend": 0.606317, "fair_value": 0.687053, "relative_strength": -10.980844, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.789586, "energy": 25.757555, "activity_lines": [ 0.664816, 0.665814, 0.641928, 0.626796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6916, "volume": 44447800, "typical_volume": 28496235.0, "trend": 0.610704, "fair_value": 0.688535, "relative_strength": -7.095603, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.156962, "energy": 33.906548, "activity_lines": [ 0.674716, 0.67066, 0.648845, 0.632298 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.67, "volume": 22413500, "typical_volume": 29280045.0, "trend": 0.615037, "fair_value": 0.68994, "relative_strength": -9.092346, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.66903, "energy": 32.385141, "activity_lines": [ 0.675308, 0.670094, 0.653173, 0.636123 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }