{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79d776b3-a7c2-4950-966d-111ea05b1a49", "symbol": "601368", "name": "Guangxi Nanning Waterworks Group Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.284, "architecture_energy": 29.941, "architecture_maturity": 82.784, "architecture_confidence": 81.929, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.19, "rotation_up": 26.58, "upward_expansion": 16.24, "deceleration": 46.86, "rotation_down": 30.74, "downward_expansion": 61.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.376667, 4.344909, 4.458012, 4.616586 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.41, "trend_reference": 4.814966, "distance_from_trend": -0.084106, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.7859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.078543, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.473795, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.158397, "excess_performance": -0.115193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084106, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048231, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.078543, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102355, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094738, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000236, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.158397, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.237321, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27818280, "relative_activity": 0.800149, "balance": 0.237321, "dry_up": 0.897554, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058559, "annualized_volatility": 0.257976, "from_high_reference": -0.223592, "from_low_reference": 0.065217 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.814966, "fair_value_reference": 4.7859, "structural_low": 4.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.007282, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.008202, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.113253, "worst_return": -0.098683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.003868, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.039505, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.112767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.030132, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.104764, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.02906, "worst_return": -0.148571, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 37025704.3, "trend": 4.8493, "fair_value": 4.797268, "relative_strength": -10.619192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.650975, "energy": 48.287414, "activity_lines": [ 4.302667, 4.326359, 4.501336, 4.670302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.44, "volume": 22528300, "typical_volume": 35662682.35, "trend": 4.8333, "fair_value": 4.791743, "relative_strength": -6.69242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.447561, "energy": 36.107342, "activity_lines": [ 4.354, 4.336064, 4.478436, 4.643895 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.41, "volume": 27818280, "typical_volume": 34766389.1, "trend": 4.814966, "fair_value": 4.7859, "relative_strength": -9.473795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.283747, "energy": 29.941382, "activity_lines": [ 4.376667, 4.344909, 4.458012, 4.616586 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }