{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79de899f-7ccf-46a6-bb44-bd6dd6dadb76", "symbol": "IEZ", "name": "ISHARES TRUST US OIL EQUIP&SVS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.863, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.369, "architecture_energy": 10.889, "architecture_maturity": 27.818, "architecture_confidence": 59.5, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.05, "rotation_up": 28.08, "upward_expansion": 19.49, "deceleration": 71.19, "rotation_down": 28.9, "downward_expansion": 30.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.811333, 27.647259, 28.569704, 28.642325 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.09, "trend_reference": 28.292911, "distance_from_trend": -0.007172, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.649129, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.297512, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.852967, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.048505, "excess_performance": -0.07712, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007172, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08844, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.297512, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147323, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01853, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220383, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048505, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.373801, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 579946, "relative_activity": 0.240654, "balance": 0.373801, "dry_up": 0.271574, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064689, "annualized_volatility": 0.322167, "from_high_reference": -0.142964, "from_low_reference": 0.652215 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.292911, "fair_value_reference": 21.649129, "structural_low": 25.69, "invalidation": "A 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"fair_value": 21.514702, "relative_strength": 3.775061, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.427788, "energy": 36.213803, "activity_lines": [ 27.178816, 28.310371, 29.060373, 28.653319 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.12, "volume": 913216, "typical_volume": 2705733.65, "trend": 27.669269, "fair_value": 21.54861, "relative_strength": 3.797629, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.825525, "energy": 47.81417, "activity_lines": [ 26.982, 27.938879, 28.875954, 28.632304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.04, "volume": 488236, "typical_volume": 2584949.65, "trend": 27.919831, "fair_value": 21.584626, "relative_strength": 7.437006, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.727585, "energy": 40.161495, "activity_lines": [ 27.318667, 27.79108, 28.787249, 28.656222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.74, "volume": 636436, "typical_volume": 2512504.85, "trend": 28.125574, "fair_value": 21.617008, "relative_strength": 4.613023, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.63661, "energy": 16.894468, "activity_lines": [ 27.525333, 27.650364, 28.664923, 28.64462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.09, "volume": 579946, "typical_volume": 2409874.0, "trend": 28.292911, "fair_value": 21.649129, "relative_strength": 1.852967, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.368735, "energy": 10.889328, "activity_lines": [ 27.811333, 27.647259, 28.569704, 28.642325 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }